Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 16 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 26 | Wins: 15 | Losers: 4 | Washes: 7 | Day: 0 | Cumulative: 2389

Straddle Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 15 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 4 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: (144)


DIRECTIONAL Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 15 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 5 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 2 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: 500
 
 


Neutral Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 16 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 3
  | Wins: 1 | Losers: 2 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0 | Cumulative: (668)

Account Balance: 98.7K

Results:

KORS: Just got to the edge and slightly beyond the unprotected downside. Essentially a wash less commissions.
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HPE 3, 12, 6.4, -3.3, 3, -7.5, ...looks like buying puts, selling calls, 1.1 straddle, 5.8% expected move, will be protecting downside due to technicals and options statistics...no can do, no premium. Will buy some puts though. Wow, so many puts outstanding.
PANW 7, 6, 5, -14.1, -7.8, -15.3, -33 Downside, hello! Between markets, 10.5 straddle, 8.8% expected move...nice credit so a nice risk/reward ratio
CIEN .88, 2.18, -18.6, -22, 11, 7.44, 15.3, -9.1, 2.03 straddle, expecting 8.6 move...not enough credit for lizard
DG 2.9, -3, 4, 9.8, 4.5, -21, -5.5, -1.2, options trading within bid/ask, 3.98 straddle, 5.5 expected move, going to protect upside

Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 15 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 25 | Wins: 15 | Losers: 4 | Washes: 6 | Day: -5K (from mistake) | Cumulative: 2389

Straddle Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 14 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 4 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: (144)


DIRECTIONAL Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 14 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 5 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 2 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: 500
 
 


Neutral Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 15 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 3
  | Wins: 1 | Losers: 2 | Washes: 0 | Day: -1050 | Cumulative: (668)

Account Balance: 99.25K

Results:

If you have a loser, GET OUT before options expiration. I became long DECK stock, and apparently SPLK stock as well, both of which moved against me today. Not good. Can only "let options expire" if they're obviously going to do so in your favor, not if you owe! Obviously the safest thing is to GET OUT of positions. This is another nuance which could KILL the trading! This honestly wiped out $5K in value...almost all the accumulated gains!

SPX Butterfly was a loser, market shot over it before stalling.  On these SPX, wait for the market to decline a bit in absolute terms before putting one on!

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KORS is the only issue for today: Kors: 9.8, 7.6, 19.2, 6.23, -2.9, -4.15, -12  (worse one years ago was -31% DROP!) Options data shows calls trading at ask or above, while puts trading at bit or below, people are selling puts, buying calls. Protect upside. 3.55 straddle, 9.7% expected move.

Friday, May 26, 2017

Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 14 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 25 | Wins: 15 | Losers: 4 | Washes: 6 | Day: -1500 | Cumulative: 7389

Straddle Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 13 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 4 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: (144)


DIRECTIONAL Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 13 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 5 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 2 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: 500
 
 


Neutral Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 14 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 2
  | Wins: 1 | Losers: 1 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0 | Cumulative: 382

Results:

--4 winners, 1 MAJOR loser today, close to max loss. Negative for the day because of this guy! I need to find a way to reduce the frequency of these massive losers even further. Based on previous earnings data, DECK was far more likely to move down massively than up. But move up it did, around 17% while the straddle predicted a 8.6% expected move.

COST, GME, SPLK, ULTA: ~$4K
DECK: -5.5K (this is a few 100 more than actual loss at time of writing)
Total: -1.5K

Hint: to reduce losses, don't trade names which have a history of ridiculously massive moves in the last 2 years relative to the expected move...well, that doesn't really work perhaps. Let's just keep trading and see how things bear out. 
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Nothing I can find to trade via Finviz
Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 13 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 20 | Wins: 11 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 6 | Day: 3210 | Cumulative: 8889

Straddle Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 12 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 4 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 0 | Day: -150  | Cumulative: (144)


DIRECTIONAL Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 12 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 5 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 2 | Day: 20  | Cumulative: 500
 
 


Neutral Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 13 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 2
  | Wins: 1 | Losers: 1 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0 | Cumulative: 382

Results:

TOS updated and gave a bit of a scare today as positions were not showing.

ANF straddle: -150, def a loss.
HPQ: put +24 result. Definitely a wash. It moved in my direction at least :)
NTAP: Success! +$950, went in the protected direction but not fully.
DLTR: Success! +1040, went in unprotected direction but not by much
MDT: Success! +920, went in unprotected direction though, not very far
BBY: Wash: went in protected direction as expected, but there was a good credit on that side still of $300...basically this wash is a success as well, because the only thing which is not a success is when the trade goes to the dangerous red zone of course.

Lizard results: around ~25K risked for: 3210 gain overnight...not bad!

Honestly I really want to start getting these results in real life. They are extremely exciting, and can revolutionize my life financially, on my terms, little overhead, not too much work, massively scalable methinks. It would give me confidence that I can henceforth only dream about because the results would be there. Of course there'd always be an underlying fear that eventually there'd be a string of losses which would entirely wipe me out, so capital would need to be "hoarded" for this time, or risk--and hence returns--reduced when a critical mass was obtained. I would be able to realize my dream of starting a hedge fund after a year or so of this because I would have enough funds for the legal documents, the accounting, etc. Of course other strategies need to be developed, this cannot be the only one. But it is highly profitable in the short term at least. Anyway, enough jabber. I've gotten excited about strategies before only to see them not work or flub. Remember the vix futures fluke? quite silly of me ^^

Let's get to work and keep up the trading.

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COST 1.63, .15, -5.7, 1.6, 3.7, 3.5, 2.5, -4.6, risk is to downside, COST is at highs as well, $5 straddle, 2.9% move implied, lizzard
DECK -4.3, 3, 7.3, -1.84 (down 13% initially though), 8.22, 4.2, 6.7, -19.17, Wow, have to protect downside. Straddle: 4.85, 8.55 EXPECTED MOVE
GME 6.1, -8.8, -4.3 (-15 initially), -4.6, -4, -10.2, +7.5, -15.6...have to protect downside, 2.30 straddle, 9.8% implied move, 
MRVL -28.5, -5.6, 11.6, +.6, -.07, 9.76, 1.5, it's at highs, I bet this is indicative of it going up, but must protect downside, $1 straddle, implying a 5.9% move...there's no credit here. No trade...check to see if some calls would have made money tomorrow though.
SPLK -5.1, -2.2, -3.6, 7.33 (12.6 initially), 2.6 (-5.2 initially), -11.22, (8 initially) barely anything, -3.6, protect downside , the massive rally occurred after a major drop in the stock's value, currently we are near the highs of the range so we shouldn't expect a similar rally. $5.05 straddle, 7.4% expected move...this is a great trade actually, great trade.
ULTA -2.3, -.6, 11.3, 14.7, 19.3, -6.2, -1.6, 4.5 protect upside, straddle costs 20.4, 6.9% move expected, great trade

VNET -6.1, 7.2, -3, 2, 6.8, -14.3,  2.5 (down significantly initially though), -25.7 if there's even any premium here, protect downside. It could possibly rise meteorically as well. So :/, 8% move expected, no credit or volume for the matter


Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 12 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 16 | Wins: 8 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 5 | Day: 500 | Cumulative: 5679

Straddle Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 11 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 3 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 2 | Washes: 0 | Day: -314  | Cumulative: 6


DIRECTIONAL Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 11 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 5 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 1 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: 480
 
 


Neutral Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 12 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 2
  | Wins: 1 | Losers: 1 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0 | Cumulative: 382

Results:

I missed a day, was rebuilding a motorcycle engine. Missed playing earnings on LOW, SDRL, and TIF. Grr! Anyway, previous day's results would have been:

MOMO: Protected the correct side! Technically a wash but made $500, so nice! This was because on the protected side the profit was $500 instead of $1K like in the middle. It wasn't around 0 this time.
TOL: -314 on a straddle, hardly moved.

HINT: Don't work ahead. It de-motivates me to trade for the next day, that's why I skipped yesterday! Like working ahead is trying to do things before their time...push myself to the breaking point, yada yada. It is unhealthy in a game where slow and steady wins the race. Just like engine rebuilding...rush, and you have an insane amount of work and expense later down the pipeline. :(((

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Have a nice list of names to trade today!

HPQ
NTAP
ANF
BBY
DLTR
MDT

HPQ .5, -10, -4.5, 7.1, -.2, -7.2, 8.8...HP is  at 5 year highs, so will protect downside, straddle 1.27, 6.7% move expected...there is not enough premium for a lizard, 39% of calls were sold, 48% of puts were bought, implies downward move, will buy some puts...I didn't even adjust the price, paid too much :(
NTAP 3.4, -.2, 1.7, -2.4, 14.8, 6.2, 4.8...protect upside, straddle is 2.63, implying 6.6% move...lizard!
ANF 13.5, 8.6, 20.4, 3.5, -19, -25.5, -13.7, 12.3, ...the tide has turned perhaps, this might be a good straddle candidate, would protect downside if had to choose, straddle 1.58, implying 12% move, no credit for a lizard, I'm buying a straddle
BBY 12.4, -2, 2.4, -7.4, 19.6, 12, -4.5, def protect upside, interesting thing about downside, BBY has a tendency to retrace to upside afterwards. So if pattern holds we are completely safe. straddle 4.13, 8.3% expected...even some extra premium if it moves up, how nice! This is one I would trade for real right now, given what I know.
DLTR -9.5, 6.8, 2.3, 12.7, -10, 8.25, .2 , it is right in the middle of its recent range no clue as to direction, protect downside, straddle at $5, 6.5% expected, nice credit on the wash side I must say!
MDT -.3, -2.3, .8, -4, -1.5, -1.2, -7.8, 2, ...protect downside obviously, seems in such an industry, disappointment is more tangible \, 2.61 straddle, 3% move expected. As can be imagined, there wasn't much credit.

BTW, it's time to place an SPX trade, it's seizing up again...2400 for Monday, 3 trading days of run...apparently 3 day weekend! Lovely! Placing a narrower one this time, 10 pts each side. resulting in about 15 pts of runway.

Monday, May 22, 2017

Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 10 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 15 | Wins: 8 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 4 | Day: 3052 | Cumulative: 5179

Straddle Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 9 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 2 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 1 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: 320


DIRECTIONAL Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 9 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 5 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 1 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: 480
 
 


Neutral Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 10 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 2
  | Wins: 1 | Losers: 1 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0 | Cumulative: 382

Results:

N/A
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INVN -9, 9.8, -3.5, -12.3, -2.6, -1.5--MERGER, NEED TO UPDATE ISSUES LIST!!
MOMO -7.2, .6, -9.4, 9, -.5, -13, 11.32...It is at relative highs, so will protect downside...straddle is 5.2, implying 11% move...the risk taken on this trade is too high for real life.
TOL -2.6, -7.3, -7.6, 3.8, 8, 8.8, 4.6, 5.6, we're at relative highs again, probably better to protect downside. Straddle cost $1.95, anticipating a 5% move...also going to buy a straddle...not enough credit for a lizard anyway

Working ahead, tomorrow's trading:
--none after market close

Friday, May 19, 2017

Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 9 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 15 | Wins: 8 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 4 | Day: 3052 | Cumulative: 5179

Straddle Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 8 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 2 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 1 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: 320


DIRECTIONAL Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 8 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 5 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 1 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: 480
 
 


Neutral Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 9 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 2
  | Wins: 1 | Losers: 1 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0 | Cumulative: 382

Results:


AMAT: 1080
CRM: 1012
DE: wash (40, but not counting it because there are commissions 1 way today)
GPS: 960

total: 3052

Hints from today: When these trades were placed, the vix was in the 15s. Then  when the trades finished today, VIX had dramatically dropped overnight. Perhaps this overall market volatility contributed to 1) high premiums for entering the trades and 2) little movement today so they were a success. This could be a "good fluke" although I am fairly confident in the ability to protect the side where a large move historically is by using the lizards. More trading will tell. Here's to another 20 days! The strategies seem to work well! Will just have to use a bit smaller position sizes for the real account, maybe $700 max profit instead of 1K for the time being since Max Max fluke loss is just too great and we must be able to survive one, as well as potential partial losses.

Notes: 
-All trades are expiring today! No second round of commissions :)
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It's a Friday, cannot trade properly on a Friday? Actually, never mind, holding things over the weekend will help with the time decay and all perhaps.

Well, the way I'm using Finviz, there are no earnings being reported by names with weekly options after the bell today, and I don't have a way to determine which (if any) are reporting before the bell on Monday since I'm using the free version.

Another Successful XIV play

Sadly did not get enough capital into the trade though :( These are very capital intensive, requiring the entire account and then some to really get the outsized gains I covet. Only had 1 down day, and 1 day to put capital in...this was an accelerated version of the typical chain of events. Next time I will know that smaller dips such as this require more capital injection more rapidly

Bought at 68.5, now 74.5, recent high it will likely surpass is 82. Vix went up to 16.27 at the peak during this round, it was in 10s at lows before the round, 10.20 being the lowest spot on the purple line.


Thursday, May 18, 2017

Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 8 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 11 | Wins: 5 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 3 | Day: 2464 | Cumulative: 2127

Straddle Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 7 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 2 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 1 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: 320


DIRECTIONAL Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 7 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 5 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 1 | Day: (310)  | Cumulative: 480
 
 


Neutral Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 8 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 2
  | Wins: 1 | Losers: 1 | Washes: 0 | Day: (1100) | Cumulative: 382

Results:

-BABA: success, +914
-WMT: partial success, +560
-RL: Lizard success, +990
-RL put: fail, -310

Hints from today: RL is not equivalent to AEO, one is retail, the other is a manufacturer...online sales for RL increasing, anyway, industry correlations can be useful but they're not bulletproof. 
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Need to analyze:
-AMAT: -2.37, -1.6, +7, 9.2, 7, 2.33, -.9, definitely protect upside, straddle $2
-CRM 4, 2, 4, 10.9, 4.2, -4.4, 3.5, 3, protect upside, straddle $4.8, lots of premium here!!
-GPS -1.5, -4.5, 7.6, -1.4, 4.3, 3.8, -16.8, +3, protect downside straddle: 1.85 on $23 stock, didn't quite get downside fully protected, not enough premium
-DE 4.3, -8.6, 3.6, -4.1, 5.5, 11.6, 10.3, 1, protect upside Straddle : 4.58, it's not even enough to protect against potential downside moves :(
Traded Lizards on all the above

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 7 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 11 | Wins: 5 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 3 | Day: 1850 | Cumulative: (337)

Straddle Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 6 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 2 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 1 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: 320


DIRECTIONAL Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 6 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 4 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 2 | Washes: 1 | Day: 1770  | Cumulative: 790
 
 


Neutral Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 7 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 2
  | Wins: 1 | Losers: 1 | Washes: 0 | Day: (1100) | Cumulative: 382

Results:

-AEO: 0.45->1.60 on the puts as it missed on earnings, Lizard obviously a wash. +1770
-SPX: did a nose-dive, lost entire premium for butterfly...it seems there's only 1 shot for the butterfly each market mini cycle -1100
-TGT: Lizard Success!: +$950
-URBN: Lizard Success!: +$900

Hints from today: Totally unrelated: the market has gone crazy because of allegations Trump, I need to better analyze and figure our my core volatility strategy, then automate it. I don't want to have my human frailty get in the way so much!! Use trailing stops or similar. Why not!!??
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 Here are the names to analyze today:

CSCO
BABA
RL
WMT

CSCO 2.7, -5.5, 9.7, 3.1,-1.4, -4.8, 2.3,...it's too late for this one, market has already reacted to earnings, to the tune of $3 to downside...because I was late to the game and doing all these things after hours.
BABA -5, +4, -3.6, 4, 11, -2.6, 3...protect upside...options say nothing, straddle price is $6, 5% move going to use 5 for the call upside, 6 for downside ^^
RL -1.4, 11.9, -22.3, 2.8, 7.5, 4.1, -12; more activity on the call side to be sure, straddle 5.67--7.8% expected move. Definitely going to protect downside, let's try a lizard and a put, the Lizard is a good price, good value!

WMT: -4, -3.5, 3.5, -2.3, 9.7, 1.8, -3, 3, options prices provide no clue, straddle 2.3, 3% expected move. Don't know enough about this to make a decision...going to opt for a lizard with the upside protected
Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 6 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 8 | Wins: 3 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 2 | Day: 950 | Cumulative: (2187)

Straddle Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 5 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 2 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 1 | Washes: 0 | Day: 320  | Cumulative: 320


DIRECTIONAL Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 5 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 3 | Wins: 0 | Losers: 2 | Washes: 1 | Day: (980)  | Cumulative: (980)
 
 


Neutral Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 6 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 1
  | Wins: 1 | Losers: 0 | Washes: 0 | Day: 1482 | Cumulative: 1482


Hints from today: Check the economic calendar each week: http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/us-economic-calendar.aspx

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Results from Yesterday: 

VIPS: .55 ---> .07  ...90% loss...wow. -480...This basically didn't move at all, the loss was purely volatility crunch
SSYS: 950 gain...didn't move mouch, this was a Lizard trade
 Here are the names to analyze today:
URBN: I would think this might drop to the downside based on the disappointing numbers from its peers, technically speaking though, earnings could be the perfect catalyst for a bounce, it's trading at multi-year lows and at support, implied vol is definitely through the roof on URBN, time to sell premium; -14.5, -2.6, -3.34, +16.13, +14, 15.8, -12.17, -2.4, lizard on this one with protection on upside...going with the technical.
AEO: I would think this might drop to the downside based on the disappointing numbers from its peers, vol at all time high 5.49,-7.5, -3, +18, -3.4, -7.8, -12.4, -9.6...there is some support technically, but not so strong, I'm going to diversify by protecting downside on this one....lots of puts being purchased. I'm going to do 2 trades on this, both a lizard and a put just to see., straddle only cost 1.29...There's actually not enough credit for a lizard...I put in an order anyway but doubt it's going to get filled.
TGT: implied vol is definitely through the roof on tgt, time to sell premium; .36, .68, -4.3, 4, -7.5, -6.4, 6.5, -12; Straddle is $3...This is actually an unacceptable trade in real life, the loss potential is just too great :(
 

Monday, May 15, 2017

Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 5 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 7 | Wins: 2 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 2 | Day: (4140) | Cumulative: (3187)

Straddle Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 4 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 2 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 1 | Washes: 0 | Day: 320  | Cumulative: 320


DIRECTIONAL Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 4 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 1 | Wins: 0 | Losers: 1 | Washes: 1 | Day: (500)  | Cumulative: (500)
 
 


Neutral Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 5 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 1
  | Wins: 1 | Losers: 0 | Washes: 0 | Day: 1482 | Cumulative: 1482

 Here are the names to analyze today:

VIPS: -4%, -10%, -12%, 0, -15%, +8%, more calls traded than puts but all in center...peeps could be selling calls for all I know. not descriptive. Wound up "buying" 14.5 puts for .55, no credit for other things
HD: -3.4, -2.4, -2.6, +1.3, +0.7, +2.7, + 4.4. Straddle 4.55, implying 2.9% move, calls & puts inconclusive. I'm not going to trade this issue.
SPLS: calls being sold, puts bought, but a lot of middle and more volume in puts. Not conclusive. -0, -2.5, -2.7, -0, -7, +3.8, -5.4...with the stock at $9.3 and options at 0.5 increments (5.4%) it's just not possible to trade with the current premiums.
SSYS: -10.46, 5.07, 17.15, -1.35, -4.4, -12.47, -9.5, avg: 8.6%,  straddle price $3, implies 10% move...no straddle trading. Did a jade lizard with put side, -12% move would put me at -1.8K...steep I know. LIZARD HERE!
VOD -.75, +2, +4.3, -7.3, +2.5,+4, +.5, -.5; puts and call buyers, not many options in volume. no directional trading, movement is just too poor.  The $0.75 straddle implies a 2.7% move...



Hints from today: Check the economic calendar each week: http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/us-economic-calendar.aspx



Strategy Idea:

Changes:

New Initiative:
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Results from today: $1482 from a SPX butterfly!! 
 
Placed a new SPX trade even though it's not 100% we will be continuing in the current pattern. Past experience has dictated that one only gets a few of these trades at the top of the market...this is not an every day occurrence I'm trading. 
 
That's a total of 3 trades today, 2 of them are short term. GJ for sticking with it!

Friday, May 12, 2017

Lizard Initiative day 3: glad I'm paper trading ^^ ---happy weekend everybody!

Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 4 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 7 | Wins: 2 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 2 | Day: (4140) | Cumulative: (3187)

Straddle Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 3 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 2 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 1 | Washes: 0 | Day: 320  | Cumulative: 320


DIRECTIONAL Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 3 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 1 | Wins: 0 | Losers: 1 | Washes: 1 | Day: (500)  | Cumulative: (500)
 
 


Hints from today: Reminder, we're trading around a $1K position cost or $1K max profit. For buying calls or puts, however, we're taking less risk and spending $500


Strategy Idea:

Changes:

New Initiative:
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CYBR was a massive fail. It highlighted the weakness of the Lizards...potential for massive losses to the tune of -$4K...this is a massive blow, it would essentially wipe me out in real life. This strategy cannot be used for real trading in the current configuration, I need to take more time in placing these trades, it's depressing, really, but will continue testing this strategy!

SYMC another minor fail: $(440)

Bet the wrong way on JCPenny, could have got a great profit if I had bought puts...hint...the entire industry was failing...how could I bet this would rise? What did Macy's do the previous day?? I love how with the markets, ones fallacies are laid bare before them in unquestionability. -500

One 

Snap...just gained $100...it went to the neutral side of the lizard.

Tip for predicting earning directions

Entire sectors trend in similar ways...if similar companies are missing guidance, there's a good likelihood that the current target will as well!

Thursday, May 11, 2017

Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 3 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 4 | Wins: 2 | Losers: 1 | Washes: 1 | Day: 1673 | Cumulative: 953

Straddle Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 2 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 2 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 1 | Washes: 0 | Day: 320  | Cumulative: 320


DIRECTIONAL Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 2 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 1 | Wins: 0 | Losers: 0 | Washes: 1 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: 0
 


Hints from today: Reminder, we're trading around a $1K position cost or $1K max profit.


Strategy Idea: If the Lizard didn't work and it's on the high side, why not hold and see if it comes down? Close out the short side perhaps.

Changes:

New Initiative:
________________________________________________________________________________

Holding: SYMC--this could be deadly, SNAP

Lizard winners/Losers:
CTRP: 830, NTES: 843 /

Straddle winners/Losers:
M: 970 / Foxa: -650

Directional winners/Losers:
WFM--Wash--$20
________________________________________________________________________________

Get in before close 5/11/17:
PBR earnings 5/11/17 after...get in 5/11/17--Can't trade, strikes, $9 stock
JCP, today's options data is not definitive, more calls than puts traded, more calls sold at bid than bought at ask, way more puts sold at bid than bought at ask...I'm trading this directionally (can't trade Lizards anyway)...chart history shows JCP has a history of exploding upwards on earnings releases
CYBR Straddle $3.80, this stock doesn't move much, no data from chart, will be doing the standard lizard...1000/5000,

Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Lizard Initiative day 2!

Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 2 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 2 | Wins: 0 | Losers: 1 | Washes: 1 | Day: (720) | Cumulative: (720)

Hints from today: For a stock which just IPO'd, check the history of similar stocks and how they performed upon IPO and their first earnings release. Also check the option chain to see which way people are betting, to confirm placing a "directional" bet
-Also, remember to first check how much greater the implied volatility on front week options is

Strategy Idea: Maybe try a strategy where we're selling a put spread, and buying a call, since gainers rise more than losers fall

Changes: In order to streamline operations, and since I'm not using the info, I stopped calculating the max drop over the previous 7 earnings announcements unless there's a really big one apparent on the charts.

New Initiative: Try straddles and other trades on stocks Lizards don't work on
________________________________________________________________________________

Get in before close 5/10/17:
CTRP  earnings 5/10/17 after...get in 5/10/17 Straddle: $3.21
FOXA earnings 5/10/17 after...get in 5/10/17 D: 26%, GOD! Straddle: $1.20, bought straddle
NTES earnings 5/10/17 after...get in 5/10/17 Straddle:$16
SYMC earnings 5/10/17 after...get in 5/10/17 Straddle: $1.67
TEVA earnings on 5/11/17 before...get in 5/10/17 Straddle: $1.76
SNAP earnings on 5/1017 after...get in 5/10/17, Straddle: $2.95. 

M earnings before market: 2.25 straddle price...decided not to do it, can go back and look at saved trades though to see result, price was 29.5...I actually decided to just buy an ATM straddle, seems like there wasn't enough premium to justify the risk. So this will be my first straddle play haha, I'll trying buying straddles on stocks I feel don't meet the requirements for this trade, will just try a bunch of stuff I guess.

SNAP: ...snap is tricky since I read an article about stocks which have recently IPO'd..Facebook and Twitter, Facebook lost 11% after first earnings release, twitter lost 44% apparently
...so caution suggest not trading this. Or trading to the reverse...sell the call on the upside...gulp. Max gain, 1100, Max loss, 5900 (remember, this isn't supposed to get hit). No penalty if stock falls excessively to the downside!
---Also in the case of snap, there is a huge call position of 23K calls at the $24.5 price..
--The biggest put position is 7K in comparison, but there are large put positions at a variety of strikes compared to the calls, which are essentially distributed all at one price. Someone could either have sold a ton of these to the market maker or bought a ton...MORE DATA: 43% of the calls for this expiration (which is 2 days away) were traded at the bid or below, since the ask is where sellers are willing to sell, and the bid is where buyers are willing to buy, it seems as if someone is selling to the market maker. This therefore reinforces the thesis that SNAP will decline just as Twitter and Facebook have. Likewise, 52% of puts were traded at ask or above.

CTRP: 1K profit, 4K max loss put side, neutral on the call side. 44% of calls were traded at the ask today, 44% of puts (not a typo) were traded at bid, this suggests people are selling puts and buying calls, suggesting that it will rise if it goes anywhere, this is in line with our trade.

FOXA: Poor liquidity, due to strike widths, can't get the trade neutral on the call side. Nixed.

NTES: Calls and Puts are being bought/sold in the middle. No directional bias can be gleaned from this data. Strategy checks, with a $900 max gain and $5,100K max loss

SYMC: Had to move in a bit closer than the straddle to get it to work, $1 instead of $1.6. Chart clean,earnings date checks, 5K loss, 960 gain,

TEVA: yes, volatility is double, chart looks ok, earnings date is correct, 49% of calls traded at ask or above (big call buyers)...can't trade this one either, $28 stock, .5 opt ions prices and low premiums don't allow, it doesn't really move during earnings anyhow.

WFM: I looked at whole foods...the chart is just exploding relative to the last 2 years. This is not an explosive business, I decided that if anything there'd be negative earnings surprise. Constructed a trade to take advantage of this potentiality...kindof a weird trade, the current profile is sortof like synthetic stock, anyhow. There's gotta be a better way to do this.

Seed Invest's first Digital Demo Day

Looking to invest $500 in one of the companies I liked, unfortunately this is all I can afford right now, need cash reserves so that I can spend my days analyzing trading strategies, etc. Don't have a income right now, want to focus on the markets, especially if I am going to launch a hedge fund by 2020 I need to get my strategies figured out to provide extremely positive returns

I keep thinking that some sort of computer program will be required to really analyze things properly, especially for forex trading, but I will just be using Metatrader 4 to implement my forex strategy. Any more custom or advanced analysis will require hooking up to APIs and paying significant amounts for data.

---Just found this on my computer, might as well post!

Tuesday, May 9, 2017

SPX Stagnation: Starting testing

Going to start paper trading the SPX stagnation strategy, which involves buying butterflies when its rangebound. Selling today around 2400, butterfly which makes money 4 days out (weekend included) if SPX is between 2388 and 2411.


I made a lot of money last year by doing things like this, but calendar trades are usually far more profitable, it is just impossible to do them anymore on SPX though :((  Those really are the "holy grail", the profit potential is insane.

Speaking of last year, things which didn't make money were:

-Straddle trades where the straddle was supposed to appreciate before earnings, then the straddle would be sold right before the earnings announcement
-Options spreads on VXX, I am just a bad predictor of when stuff will reverse. Buying XIV works much better for me. Selling Longer-term XIV futures (5-6 months out in times of high volatility) will be even better most likely (with a protective stop of course)

Anyway, spx options are not available anymore so let's do this trade.

RESULTS:

RUNNING RESULTS:

Got in to Lizards!

Got in to the lizards for the day:

Get in before close 5/9/17:
PCLN earnings 5/9/17 after...get in 5/9/17 D: 4  CHECK
NVDA earnings 5/9/17 after...get in 5/9/17 D: 6.4 CHECK
DIS earnings 5/9/17 after...get in 5/9/17 D: 9 NOT ENOUGH PREMIUM
EA earnings 5/9/17 after...get in 5/9/17 NOT ENOUGH PREMIUM
MYL earnings 5/10/17 before market...get in 5/9/17 NOT ENOUGH PREMIUM
AGM 5/10/17 before get in 5/9/17 U:16% D: 9%, up then down earnings  NOT ENOUGH PREMIUM/ONLY MONTHLY OPTIONS

So only have 2 plays after all. More tomorrow though!

First I'm using the Weekly ATM straddle to determine the expected move. I subtract the straddle price from the current price and sell a put at that level, being sure to protect with one much further out just to limit the margin requirement. I add the cost of the straddle to the current price and sell a call spread, adjusting the strikes so that if the stock rockets the trade will break even. The downside is only slightly protected.

The plan is to get out of these trades next day. And do this for at least 2 weeks. A month at best before judging the results. Meanwhile, I need to look for other strategies to trade

This week's Jade Lizard plays!--New Trading Initiative!

Recently watched an option slam webinar about this trade and going to test it out with paper trading. The following are the candidates by day. Each day's trades will be prepared the day before.

Also have a bunch of due dilligence to do: need to read that information about equity crowdfunding I invested in, then decide which of the companies from seedinvest's digital demo day are going to get my dollars!

Get in before close 5/9/17:
PCLN earnings 5/9/17 after...get in 5/9/17
NVDA earnings 5/9/17 after...get in 5/9/17
DIS earnings 5/9/17 after...get in 5/9/17
EA earnings 5/9/17 after...get in 5/9/17
MYL earnings 5/10/17 before market...get in 5/9/17
AGM 5/10/17 before get in 5/9/17 U:16% D: 9%, up then down earnings 

Get in before close 5/10/17:
CTRP  earnings 5/10/17 after...get in 5/10/17
FOXA earnings 5/10/17 after...get in 5/10/17
NTES earnings 5/10/17 after...get in 5/10/17
SYMC earnings 5/10/17 after...get in 5/10/17
TEVA earnings on 5/11/17 before...get in 5/10/17

WFM earnings 5/10/17 after...get in 5/10/17

Get in before close 5/11/17:
PBR earnings 5/11/17 after...get in 5/11/17

Monday, May 1, 2017

Bookmark:Personal Blogs and sites of Managers

http://www.dailydirtnap.com/who/
http://jesseredmond.com/
http://www.blackpiercapital.com/#!blog-1/i8k2p
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/
Smarta
VenturaBlog
Ken Griffin  

Not managers but related:
http://www.grantspub.com/
http://towerfundservices.com/forum/
https://seekingalpha.com/account/research/subscribe?slug=chris-demuth-jr

Hedge fund managers in California: https://www.quora.com/Whos-the-best-young-hedge-fund-manager-on-the-west-coast