---Overall Theme: I've been trying to minimize my trading and trade medium term trends
Sometimes I get stuck in the context of my previous trades. Don't properly analyze the trend, etc.
Trend analysiss (higher/lower highs/lows) still seems to be the most powerful trading weapon in terms of positioning myself for moves. I am not using it properly.
A lot of it was market wasn't trending very aggressively in the middle of the day though.
My stops were also a little too tight. Missed 2 strong short term trends in gold as a result, was a little too greedy with order entry.
On these slower days I am definitely missing trends. It takes a bit of discipline maybe I need to move to a 3 minute chart
I b/s 10 times in Gold. 3 in oil, 2 in zc...the ones where I kept with the longer-term trend and bought/sold less were the most profitable so far, especially during this slow day
I also missed a couple of major trends in the S&P. The only good news is I've kept the risk low and haven't lost too much
One thing that would help me a lot: look at the 30 minute chart to see the context b4 trading.
I'm tired and hot btw, this isn't helping.
Despite not even looking at the trend for /ZC originally, I happened to get on the right side of it and have been sticking with it, it appears that this uptrend in the futures might bail me out of the other losses, day profit standing at 162 at time of writing
Another thing I am not doing is paying attention to the news...
Finally caught the gold trend up, erased 180 in losses and added 150, 330 in one trade. Could have been up much further on the day if I had caught the trends!
Zn: -46.88 2 b/s
Zs: -100 4 b/s
Zc: 162.5 4 b/s
Gc: 150 22 b/s
Es: -212.50 16 b/s
Cl: 50 8 b/s
________________
Total: $3.36--56 b/s
So like ~-$200 overall because of the commissions. Of course slippage isn't a factor, nor is real market behavior, meaning actual results would be much worse!
Thursday, August 31, 2017
Tuesday, August 29, 2017
3rd day positive, but strategies still need refinement
Based on the news and price context, I should have a daily direction in mind (or a ranging hypothesis). I should look for trades based on this fundamental information.
I notice I've been having trouble balancing taking profits with trying to catch a longer-term trend. The issue is for me the trend is an ideal, so perhaps it takes precedent over shorter-term expedients. One solution is to trade 2 contracts, take any short term gifts with the first, and attempt to hold the second for the longer term.
I also, on shorter-term counter-trend trades need to be a bit more greedy, after all there is substantial risk endured...but not overly greedy!
Eventually (80) on CL...good trades at first then kept trading against the trend and getting "killed", 22 b/s Add another $70 in commissions
Did the best with Gold, 12 b/s and 720 profit. Was playing this like a longer-term trend that I was highly confident about direction of. It is definitely not as exciting, and perhaps a bit aggravating, especially on a 1 minute chart. Maybe need a 15 minute chart to feel good about these. $40 in commissions
Constantly traded against the trend on /ES as well after determining the north Korea missile launch really wasn't a big deal...did that by looking at the trajectory over Japan, basically they were just proceeding with their plans to test a longer range missile, and of course the Western world is doing brinkmanship. But instead of going with my view that SPX would recover given its context, I was usually going short. Would have been better doing longer term trends. In the meantime I might have to do that 2 contract thing I was mentioning....trade both ways. Either that or pick an instrument to LTT and then others to short term trade. Anyway, $450 in booked profit, but at 42 b/s...wow. 130 in commissions. Quite the burn.
I also had a problem with "left over" stop orders getting filled. Better to use the OCO functionality to get everything placed and then drag by hand. Will have to start practicing with this.
So just taking $3 per b/s and not counting the price advantages of my paper trading (for that reason, not counting the $147 profit in ZN with 10 b/s...since this would probably have been a loss if real market behavior was accounted for) we have $240 in commissions, and $1090 in profit, leaving $850 in profit
Haven't done any coding reading today, anxious to get back to it, this is going to be so fun, it's an amazing challenge, pitting myself against the vast global currency market (or trying to buddy up with it haha) and working on extracting its treasures. Other market participants are not necessarily good at this! And the good thing with global currency markets is just like in futures markets they are not purely speculative. Lots of transactions have the important purpose of moving money around.
I notice I've been having trouble balancing taking profits with trying to catch a longer-term trend. The issue is for me the trend is an ideal, so perhaps it takes precedent over shorter-term expedients. One solution is to trade 2 contracts, take any short term gifts with the first, and attempt to hold the second for the longer term.
I also, on shorter-term counter-trend trades need to be a bit more greedy, after all there is substantial risk endured...but not overly greedy!
Eventually (80) on CL...good trades at first then kept trading against the trend and getting "killed", 22 b/s Add another $70 in commissions
Did the best with Gold, 12 b/s and 720 profit. Was playing this like a longer-term trend that I was highly confident about direction of. It is definitely not as exciting, and perhaps a bit aggravating, especially on a 1 minute chart. Maybe need a 15 minute chart to feel good about these. $40 in commissions
Constantly traded against the trend on /ES as well after determining the north Korea missile launch really wasn't a big deal...did that by looking at the trajectory over Japan, basically they were just proceeding with their plans to test a longer range missile, and of course the Western world is doing brinkmanship. But instead of going with my view that SPX would recover given its context, I was usually going short. Would have been better doing longer term trends. In the meantime I might have to do that 2 contract thing I was mentioning....trade both ways. Either that or pick an instrument to LTT and then others to short term trade. Anyway, $450 in booked profit, but at 42 b/s...wow. 130 in commissions. Quite the burn.
I also had a problem with "left over" stop orders getting filled. Better to use the OCO functionality to get everything placed and then drag by hand. Will have to start practicing with this.
So just taking $3 per b/s and not counting the price advantages of my paper trading (for that reason, not counting the $147 profit in ZN with 10 b/s...since this would probably have been a loss if real market behavior was accounted for) we have $240 in commissions, and $1090 in profit, leaving $850 in profit
Haven't done any coding reading today, anxious to get back to it, this is going to be so fun, it's an amazing challenge, pitting myself against the vast global currency market (or trying to buddy up with it haha) and working on extracting its treasures. Other market participants are not necessarily good at this! And the good thing with global currency markets is just like in futures markets they are not purely speculative. Lots of transactions have the important purpose of moving money around.
Monday, August 28, 2017
Playing with Candlestick Patterns
Think or swim has many candlestick patterns programmed into the system. I've learned by exploring them that some patterns very rarely appear...and seem to be significant when they do, such as the "stick Sandwich", "morningstar", "deliberation", "dark cloudrising", "homing Pigeon".
"williams fractal", "ZigZagStepPattern", and to a lesser degree, "harami", "engulfing," "hammer"--(lesser) are all very reliable and occur frequently...with williams fractal being uncannily accurate with regards to bottoms and tops of all magnitudes...however it is useless since it only occurs several bars after a top/bottom. It is basically confirmation that a new trend has potentially begun. Zig Zag is far more selective and much more likely to pick out major tops. Once in awhile it throws false signals, but these are usually in an area near the highs where I wouldn't be trading anyway, or during a rise...reassuring that prices won't move lower!
Others, such as "thrusting" are usually wrong and could be a worthwhile contrarian indicator haha.
"ThreeOutsideDown" and "ThreeOutsideUP" seem very useful as well, although they often lag a bit and may be more useful in terms of confirmations, perhaps it is time to add margin to the trade when these appear.
Thankfully, there is a way to put them all on the chart at once, just click patterns next to studies and drawings on the blue bar where one enters the ticker symbol...then select ones which appear relevant to a particular security. In this way one can whittle down the studies to
"williams fractal", "ZigZagStepPattern", and to a lesser degree, "harami", "engulfing," "hammer"--(lesser) are all very reliable and occur frequently...with williams fractal being uncannily accurate with regards to bottoms and tops of all magnitudes...however it is useless since it only occurs several bars after a top/bottom. It is basically confirmation that a new trend has potentially begun. Zig Zag is far more selective and much more likely to pick out major tops. Once in awhile it throws false signals, but these are usually in an area near the highs where I wouldn't be trading anyway, or during a rise...reassuring that prices won't move lower!
Others, such as "thrusting" are usually wrong and could be a worthwhile contrarian indicator haha.
"ThreeOutsideDown" and "ThreeOutsideUP" seem very useful as well, although they often lag a bit and may be more useful in terms of confirmations, perhaps it is time to add margin to the trade when these appear.
Thankfully, there is a way to put them all on the chart at once, just click patterns next to studies and drawings on the blue bar where one enters the ticker symbol...then select ones which appear relevant to a particular security. In this way one can whittle down the studies to
$300 in futures day trading paper profits, after $800
Friday about $800 in paper profits after commissions, today about $300 after commissions. Most profitable was Crude Oil, which experienced a nice trend and net 360 after 4 trades...very first trade was a loss of $70 though, so had to make that up.
Was using some tools today.
On /ZN the Conigy method doesn't seem to work, instead breakout trading typically seems far more effective. A close use of stops must be utilized however!! Using protective stops aggressively is very helpful, perhaps I best use them even more often.
I did some advanced analysis on end of day behavior for the S&P. Basically for 4 days in a row the market was trading down at the end of the day. It did this for 4 days and the times were as follows: 4:45, 4:35, 4:25, 4:20...and then the current day broke this cycle by a long shot, almost as if market participants were hinting that the end of day downward behavior was over and the opposite would occur. I didn't take this seriously and missed the end of the day uptrend. Volume analysis also threw me off, should have remembered that it increases on the end of day anyhow, so not to judge a change in trend by more volume. And I also ignored a clear uptrend...plenty of time to respond. The higher high, lower low trend analysis can be very powerful. Use it frequently!
"I trade the q's, QQQ, I trade 'em tight!" --that is the result of aggressive protective stops.
Looking forward to more trading! I have been my most thoughtful and used my most advanced analysis today. Used the stuff I've learned. Very happy about this!
Was using some tools today.
- Minute charts for entry/stop positions, 15 minute to see longer term trend (saved me on crude oil!)
- Support/resistance lines, Very useful for targets and areas of potential caution.
- on balance volume...noticed that ws and ms are useful in the analysis
- Uptrend/downtrend (higher highs, higher lows)/reverse was VERY helpful
- 9 period exponential average to help clarify the current trend
- fibonnaci analysis, both retracements and extensions.
- LOTS of stops, and moving stop up aggressively with price, also letting winners "run"
- some bollinger bands, although they weren't that helpful.
- RSI indicator, the overbought/oversold can be helpful
On /ZN the Conigy method doesn't seem to work, instead breakout trading typically seems far more effective. A close use of stops must be utilized however!! Using protective stops aggressively is very helpful, perhaps I best use them even more often.
I did some advanced analysis on end of day behavior for the S&P. Basically for 4 days in a row the market was trading down at the end of the day. It did this for 4 days and the times were as follows: 4:45, 4:35, 4:25, 4:20...and then the current day broke this cycle by a long shot, almost as if market participants were hinting that the end of day downward behavior was over and the opposite would occur. I didn't take this seriously and missed the end of the day uptrend. Volume analysis also threw me off, should have remembered that it increases on the end of day anyhow, so not to judge a change in trend by more volume. And I also ignored a clear uptrend...plenty of time to respond. The higher high, lower low trend analysis can be very powerful. Use it frequently!
"I trade the q's, QQQ, I trade 'em tight!" --that is the result of aggressive protective stops.
Looking forward to more trading! I have been my most thoughtful and used my most advanced analysis today. Used the stuff I've learned. Very happy about this!
Saturday, August 19, 2017
The things you realize programming on a Saturday Morning
Learning the MLQ4 programing language and playing around with indicators, I came to some realizations you might find valuable...programming does expand the mind!:
The 5th dimension...now I get it thanks to arrays! We "enter" the 5th dimension when we select the best set of actions from a range of possible choices using our imaginations. A dot on a straight line is 1D, Sudoku is 2D, and physical objects are in 3D. Real life happens in 4D...the critical aspect here is time. The 3D identity of space changes with time, whether that space is your closet or a hurricane. And here's where it gets tripy: In 5D there are essentially alternate realities. Think of a slider where you can choose a (4D) movie about any number of possible outcomes for an event which would happen in a given room during a certain time range. The 3D setting is in common (same atoms in the room in all cases), the 4D setting is in common (same time frame), but the goings on are different. You're thinking 5D!
Relationships:
After going a tangent reading peoples' reminiscences about breaking up with romantic partners on Quora, the idea that it takes 2 to make things work in an environment of caring and mutual respect was reinforced. I also realized that one doesn't have to be a communications pro to have a functional relationship...although it certainly helps! And along those lines I introduce the programming-inspired concept of "safe mode"...on windows machines this is a boot option where actions taken will likely not harm the software because the important bits are not so accessible. Next time you want to know what your loved one thinks on a potentially touchy subject, invoke safe mode: tell them you're experimenting and ask them to take things less seriously than normal, as in the analogy. Obviously don't say just ANYTHING--"safe mode" isn't idiot-proof!
In a similar vein, you can ask your partner if s/he would have a "deep conversation" with you. Those talks where everyone can talk freely about not-so-normal subjects and form a strong connection? It's not necessary to wait until it happens naturally, like these things thankfully do. The process can be jump-started if both people agree to overcome some temporary awkwardness!
On Cutting Corners and Cheating:
Something inside loves a challenge, maybe getting away with a small-stakes something. I recently obtained a parking ticket in a private lot. I have in my mind a convincing excuse and evidence to back it up...but on second thought, we are creatures of habit as the saying goes...and I have a bad habit of doing things sloppily then instead of accepting the consequences, trying to make it work and neutralize the impact. As a trader I can confidently affirm that this is NOT the best strategy for making money. It also doesn't work in many other areas in life whether that is working on airplanes or selling a client. In fact, it likely generally causes more harm than it saves time. So instead of spending more energy trying to get out of the ticket, I'm planning to pay the fine and move on...accept the defeat and change tactics. Take that uncomfortable blow and use it as motivation to take more care in the first place.
Now all this isn't to say that we can't fudge and "cheat"...holding something together with duct tape can be considered just that. But in my mind it is not a long-term strategy and is best used as the recourse of last resort. If you can do it right the first time, that's generally best.
I think that's all for this morning!
Thursday, August 17, 2017
Joined Raul's room on TMT--had a smoker of a day.
Here is some of Raul's commentary:
Risk: /ES 6 pts
Dow: 60 pts dow
Cl:
Raul uses 30 minute bars
Looking for P and b and D shaped distributions...they don't clearly tell you where the zones are...true zones are located at single distribution zones
-Levels of support and resistance are not accurate on the overnight session...nobody is awake to buy and sell at these specific areas or manage the positions there. So they are not respected. It isn't until the US session that these levels are actively being traded.
-Raul only looks out a week or 2 for the market profiles...and if there are no levels in the market's recent memory, there's no support, hence he wouldn't be wanting to get long in these situations
Most people learn about stocks, then options, then forex or futures
Options are not a scam...but it's more difficult to trade options than stocks
Problem with stocks is even with a Margin account they're too expensive
agree
Really need 500K or greater to trade stocks according to Raul
They they start trading options...but the problem is the options are not 1:1 with the stocks...a lot of time time decay decreases the value if it doesn't move. More moving parts.
Raul didn't like Forex because the leverage is opaque
Could you even trade forex the same way you trade futures? Is the volume data not there?
14 day free trial to play with the indicator and confirm it's something you really want and can use
Cumulative tick volume is like a therapist
People get their cues from pre-market action, so one can expect the actual market to follow
Was with Raul when he had a terrible trading day losing 15K in the markets. Since I was fully long XIV I actually took a similar beating. I actually tried to get out of my position soon after the open when the market started tanking, but became resigned to it because Raul was looking to keep buying the decline...I had company I guess.
Pretty sad. As it stands, I have no wealth anymore after -2.7K in losses, am still holding of course...things could get worse before they get better. I really have to ask myself what I was thinking. This performance is Cataclysmic-ally Abysmal.
In fact, this is a 20% loss of equity from my first XIV trade a few days ago. Had I gotten out faster or even at a small loss like I originally planned, I would have been a hero! Could have gotten in at the lows of today.
Risk: /ES 6 pts
Dow: 60 pts dow
Cl:
Raul uses 30 minute bars
Looking for P and b and D shaped distributions...they don't clearly tell you where the zones are...true zones are located at single distribution zones
-Levels of support and resistance are not accurate on the overnight session...nobody is awake to buy and sell at these specific areas or manage the positions there. So they are not respected. It isn't until the US session that these levels are actively being traded.
-Raul only looks out a week or 2 for the market profiles...and if there are no levels in the market's recent memory, there's no support, hence he wouldn't be wanting to get long in these situations
Most people learn about stocks, then options, then forex or futures
Options are not a scam...but it's more difficult to trade options than stocks
Problem with stocks is even with a Margin account they're too expensive
agree
Really need 500K or greater to trade stocks according to Raul
They they start trading options...but the problem is the options are not 1:1 with the stocks...a lot of time time decay decreases the value if it doesn't move. More moving parts.
Raul didn't like Forex because the leverage is opaque
Could you even trade forex the same way you trade futures? Is the volume data not there?
14 day free trial to play with the indicator and confirm it's something you really want and can use
Cumulative tick volume is like a therapist
People get their cues from pre-market action, so one can expect the actual market to follow
Was with Raul when he had a terrible trading day losing 15K in the markets. Since I was fully long XIV I actually took a similar beating. I actually tried to get out of my position soon after the open when the market started tanking, but became resigned to it because Raul was looking to keep buying the decline...I had company I guess.
Pretty sad. As it stands, I have no wealth anymore after -2.7K in losses, am still holding of course...things could get worse before they get better. I really have to ask myself what I was thinking. This performance is Cataclysmic-ally Abysmal.
In fact, this is a 20% loss of equity from my first XIV trade a few days ago. Had I gotten out faster or even at a small loss like I originally planned, I would have been a hero! Could have gotten in at the lows of today.
Wednesday, August 16, 2017
Horrible Results
Traded for 5 hours...halfway through was profitable ($325), but by the end of the day had given it all back and $50, having entered and exited trades 32 times... that's 64X whatever the commission is...something isn't quite working.
If I had followed the market perfectly there would have been 6 entries and exits...12 vs 64. To give an idea.
You see
I did learn that IB has much lower commissions on the order of $0.85 per contract (plus exchange fees of $1 minimum) . Combined with their managed accounts program and wide range of instruments, this is yet another reason to choose them as my primary broker. Their poor interface and expensive options contracts are the reasons not to.
Temporal Analysis: it seems that based on the daily charts there are 3, I repeat 3 major reaction times where there are potential pivots. All except 6:30 are +/- 30 mins or so.
6:30
9:30
12:00
All Pacific Time
If I had followed the market perfectly there would have been 6 entries and exits...12 vs 64. To give an idea.
You see
I did learn that IB has much lower commissions on the order of $0.85 per contract (plus exchange fees of $1 minimum) . Combined with their managed accounts program and wide range of instruments, this is yet another reason to choose them as my primary broker. Their poor interface and expensive options contracts are the reasons not to.
Temporal Analysis: it seems that based on the daily charts there are 3, I repeat 3 major reaction times where there are potential pivots. All except 6:30 are +/- 30 mins or so.
6:30
9:30
12:00
All Pacific Time
Tuesday, August 15, 2017
Abysmal Results
Trading /ES and /NKD while reading advertisements etc...and not using stops...very bad plan haha, -$325 as I realized the positions were going against me every time I'd check back
THIS IS PAPER MONEY. So I don't care AS MUCH...it's good to be able to just dick around without getting hurt. That is often what leads to new discoveries.
THIS IS PAPER MONEY. So I don't care AS MUCH...it's good to be able to just dick around without getting hurt. That is often what leads to new discoveries.
Monday, August 14, 2017
Made $50 on paper with /ES but could have "made a killing"
Getting in early about 30 mins prior to market open in anticipation of this jump would have resulted in very good profits.
I'm really kindof playing the small game with XIV...it would be better to trade futures during the same explosive days that XIV requires methinks.
Thursday, August 10, 2017
Broke Even
Today did 14 trades on /ES (very opportune in that it moved almost 1%) and basically broke even...but then there's all those commissions! Will have to get better in order to do it for real. But will keep hitting this every day and think I'll get the hang of it.
Wednesday, August 9, 2017
Spent $238 trading /ES
I just spent $238 trading ES...quite a few different trades were the result.
Now I know what it is like to trade the real markets. It's better to practice on TOS for the time being! It behaves fairly similar for the longer moves. Once I can make money consistently I can go back to real.
It feels like a bummer quite frankly because the excitement just isn't there in the same way it is when one is trading small with real bucks.
I am proud of myself for stopping at loss of 1% of equity, and when it appeared the market was no longer interested in sudden moves.
I lost an additional $9 on TOS paper trading (in commissions) before it was very apparent that the market wasn't moving so much anymore.
Of course I'm not happy with the losing money thing, and I just can't let myself think of it in real-world terms, as the great traders have said.
Until next time!
Now I know what it is like to trade the real markets. It's better to practice on TOS for the time being! It behaves fairly similar for the longer moves. Once I can make money consistently I can go back to real.
It feels like a bummer quite frankly because the excitement just isn't there in the same way it is when one is trading small with real bucks.
I am proud of myself for stopping at loss of 1% of equity, and when it appeared the market was no longer interested in sudden moves.
I lost an additional $9 on TOS paper trading (in commissions) before it was very apparent that the market wasn't moving so much anymore.
Of course I'm not happy with the losing money thing, and I just can't let myself think of it in real-world terms, as the great traders have said.
Until next time!
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