very bad day

First off, I missed an incredible trade due to previous human commitments:

"I am super depressed. Picked up my cousin from the airport and during that time GBTC was crashing...but quickly rebounded. I would definitely have played that rebound...Cost me $1-6K of lost high-probability opportunity for personal account...more for client accounts of course.
Sad thing is had an order to buy at the line but canceled it right before left because was definitely spooked by the premium and wanted to manually execute.
Ug, my life is over! This just doesn't occur every day--but maybe it does somewhere in the world. I suppose it's my job to find it...definitely letting the emotions get involved here but at same time can't keep missing these opportunities, it's where the money is!
BTW, my cousin/family doesn't know and we had a great conversation on the way home. Didn't think there was any point mentioning this."

It took me awhile to get over this...went to sleep. Then when woke up came back and looked at markets. Saw NVDA was not performing as expected, followed rules but let emotions take over when doing so and made a very poor exit. Lost $200-300 more than I should have. Very pathetic!

The whole reason was I panic-traded. NVDA broke the first trendline in photo, and I told myself that if this happened I'd get out. Then it traded back up...this would have been the right "get out" opportunity. I'd have a 0.50 loss compared to a 0.85 loss. Huge difference in the options world when your contract was purchased at 2.75

Trade was worth a gamble overall due to several supporting factors, but entry/exit were poor and rushed, so what could have been a profitable exit became a loss. Trading really is very sensitive, especially with options, to entry/exit. Until I get better at this, I should not be trading options methinks. Need to do some practice with the entries/exits!

I can't believe it. I betrayed myself!

I was really excited about the Verge cryptocurrency...and then I got spooked by the head coder's comments on redit.

I also thought it would keep going lower because that is what the chart was doing...and bitcoin kept going higher and I wanted a piece of the action.

Well. Those 100,000 verge that I bought for $0.005 are now worth $0.06. If I had actually went all-in and purchased 1,000,000 of them like I wanted, I would now have $60,000 as a result. And if this continues to become a major crypto currency it will likely soar to 10B in market cap...then that would have been $600,000. Literally this crypto could have made me a millionaire, but I haven't been paying the attention to the crypto markets that I should have, and I definitely didn't have the faith. In fact, I bought verge at 0.00000055 btc and sold at 0.00000049 because I thought I could likely buy it back cheaper.

Well, I hope I learn my lesson this time: these platforms can explode. Invest heavily in the most promising of them. There's no way I can make these kinds of returns by trading. It is simply impossible.

The other thing is I shouldn't have discounted it so much when verge started to rise. After all, with trading one wants to look for gainers because they will likely have more upside.

I am acting like the fox with the sour grapes in Aesop's fables. Really, it is truly pathetic. I've also been over-trading.

Heck, I was even considering developing for Verge. Because it wasn't 100% magic I dropped that idea...although not entirely. Wow.

Really, these crypto markets are the most life changing things potentially. I simply cannot believe them. This is where nearly 100% of my focus should be for most profitability potential. Wow, I cannot believe this. Just cannot believe this. We're in the vertical phase. If I can't make money now, I never could have made money. If I can't become a millionaire in this space now, I will never become one.

Cryptocurrencies must be a focus every single day.

I missed Cortano as well because I didn't jump in soon enough...didn't want to fomo, was trying to get a better price. Loser!

I mean wow. Wow, wow, wow.

Verge stated they were ready for prime time. I cannot believe how right they were. My understanding of quality needs to be calibrated, unfortunately. I don't think Tron was as good as verge actually....so now I know. Don't waste coins on speculative ICOs that have low value. Invest the money in platforms. Now is the time to be extremely aggressive, so it would appear.

It's time to change this right now. Go for it mate. You can't lose (in this market it's quite difficult!). You're invincible (if diversify holdings!)

Definitely let my internal "trade detector" steer me wrong

I am looking for these rare position trades, apparently. I had one in the bag with Eth...was watching gods must be crazy (I hardly watch movies...maybe 1-a-month?) and SAW it bottom, and KNEW it was a bottom. However, I didn't really know what to do. I had just sold my ethers for bitcoin, and didn't zoom out enough on the chart to realize the significance of what I was seeing, until a bit later...and then I slowly went long 100% of the bitcoin I had in Bittrex. But I was too aggressive and got stopped out...was too scared to give it enough room since I didn't quite get in at the bottom. Oh man.

I realize what the problem was...I just wasn't serious about trading then. I mean, I was partially serious. That's the reason for the previous post...it shows how messed up I was. It basically marks a shift in mindset, where I decided that I needed to be a serious trader. That I needed to treat this like a real business. I had heard it before, but hadn't really done it.

And honestly I am watching things like a hawk now. There's absolutely no way I can not be successful in the long run, like this, if I SPEND THE TIME in front of the charts and take opportunity as it is presented. That's all this game---I had a huge, visceral reaction to typing that. I used to call this a game. And that semi-seriousness has been the result of most of my pain in this business. TRADING IS NOT A GAME. THIS IS NOT A GAME. NOT A GAME!

TRADING IS NOT A GAME. This is serious. Life or Death.

Trading really is life or death for me. It's very easy to lose money, and if I am going to be responsible for millions and millions of dollars, I don't have latitude to "fuck around"

So anyway, my crypto portfolio has been really suffering. I took all my money out of alts when bitcoin was rallying. At the wrong time! I didn't understand the dynamics of trading. You buy when it's cheap, sell when high. Don't dump after having endured a very long decline and just waking up to that fact when there are reasons for the underlying to rebound. Anyway, First GOOD trade (or at least position) I've entered was TRX through Liqui. But I used my LTC to do that. So essentially just replaced a 3x gain in one position with a 3x gain in another. :/ Definitely missed out on the Ethereum. Oh yeah, back to that soon.

The other thing that happened to really change my Psyche was the investing sessions I've been having with OJ. These are very important. What's important about them is the learning that's been involved. These stimulate the brain and are SO IMPORTANT. Basically for awhile there we were watching videos every night, or every other night--videos by respected teachers in the community. Who have experience and have done very well for themselves. I really need to keep these up, they have precipitated a revolution! Watching these things along would be alright, but with someone is massive.

Side thought--VR is going to be huge. AR. With this technology we'll be able to do things together without being physically present. This is going to be insane. It's going to give us the illusion of presence. The MS holo-lens allows these kinds of things.

Man, That's what I'm going to do with the 2nd or 3rd room in my house--hey, maybe just to the living room because I only plan on having 2 bedrooms: and the plan is for 1 to be an office.

Oh man, another reason to do the computer programming. But seriously, being able to have virtual meetings from our homes is definitely something I will subscribe to. This will precipitate and interesting kind of world. The home will become the essence of all things for some--we'll just hole up. Have groceries etc delivered robotic-ally. Interact with people.

Man, you know virtuix? I invested in them right. On my wish list is one of their--or a competitor's platform, so that I can play a virtual shooter. Really I don't care for video games. Nor do I like war...hmm...is there something else I can do then with this tech? Because the idea is to get good exercise of the body, and good exercise of the brain, while at the same time fighting with team-mates. The whole point is for this to be a social experience. I just don't know about bringing the games into the picture. Just don't know if the brain can handle making progress in both a virtual world and a real world. Perhaps this can be a night-time activity...but I'm hoping I can make this my daily exercise, and have the comradare, and it will hopefully be realistic so I'll learn better fighting skills. Better teamwork. You know, the whole 9 yards. But it ONLY makes sense if it's virtual reality--otherwise the exercise component just isn't there, which is what's required to make it worthwhile. It would be nice to do this with a companion though. I suppose that's where the wife is supposed to come in...she has to have similar interests...there HAS to be synergy there. Ah, that is in the future perhaps. Not something to concern myself with now.

For now, watching stock market videos while lifting dumdbells will have to suffice!--And this is probably a better use of time anyway. Watching these videos while exercising. Yeah.

So back to eth...here is the chart. I could have doubled the amount of bitcoin I have most likely...and actually have a full bitcoin. It's unfortunate I didn't take advantage of this properly. However, there will be another chance, somewhere, somehow. These chances are often few and far between. But I know there are some out there right now. And that's where the "if unsure, take more risk" comes in--I'm often reluctant to jump on really good setups, but that's exactly what's required--jumping. Speed. Timing is everything in this business.

Just made the worst trade of my life.

Bitcoin futures launch on Sunday. That was projected to take the premium (which was ~70% in one instance) out of GBTC...and it had. The fund closed Friday at 10% premium, squarely. I had gotten in at THE WRONG TIME...I bought at the fucking high just like a noob. Right before I went to take the GRE exam too. So I had all this stress at the GRE exam as a result.

Sometimes I wonder if I have a brain. I had snap-adopted the new philosophy "if unsure what to do, take more risk" because I wanted to trade, wanted to get those gains, and apparently couldn't wait.

SO the result today is GBTC DEFLATED another 10% today, wiping 5% off my accounts. Also, bitcoin is in a holding pattern. GBTC is now trading at a 10% premium to NAV, one of the lowest in history, and it is not likely to ever be high again.

I could easily have sold this morning and gotten out with only minor lumps too! But the main question is why in the world would I subject myself to so much uncertainty (except for believing in the parabolic chart-evidence) and potential damage in order to potentially make a few bucks...and alleviate my pain that "funds were not invested"...CASH IS A POSITION! A STRONG ONE, ONE FROM WHICH OTHER ACTION CAN BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF.

But apparently I wanted the pain. I wanted my clients to feel the pain. I have a fiduciary responsibility. I cannot justify stupid trades like these!!! I am definitely overtrading as well...and poorly at that.

And now, the futures will launch over the weekend, and the whole market is in a holding patter...this could potentially be the biggest crash EVER...except that the futures have limit-down halts...which I just read last 2-5 minutes.

Everyone is saying the ride will be "wild": https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/08/no-one-is-sure-whether-bitcoin-futures-will-pop-or-drop-at-the-start-but-it-should-be-wild.html

And I just put myself square in the middle of it, for no good reason. Setting all gains this year up for wipe-out, potentially.

In any case, this will definitely be a historic moment in my history of trading.

Now perhaps I'm delusionally imagining/hoping for a wildly optimistic scenario where Bitcoin rallies tremendously to heights never-before-seen...after some trading, because a syndicate of whales have decided to fuck Wall-Street, especially if futures begin to go short. But really, although this is not completely out of the question, it is not possible. Since Wall-Streeters will simply have stop orders. Yes they may lose money, but they will keep the losses reasonable. So my final hope is dashed.

More than likely, the coin will plummet. Now I must decide what I'm going to do as a result--I could hold...I was going to say this was more than likely in my personal accounts, but in truth, it is not. I will change bitcoin into something else if futures are unfavorable...and from the contract specifications, http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures/contract-specifications, this will occur at 5PM central time on Sunday under ticker XBT

Everyone will be watching their screens. If the coin plummets for more than 15 minutes, I will--what will I do? I will send half my money to litecoin...which has shown strength...and half to Tethers? What is the goal here: goal is to preserve capital, not make money--yet. We'll plan on buying near the bottom of the first move, and thus do that later. So the first goal is to preserve capital, and Tethers are the best way to do this in the crypto-world. In fact, it might be good to pre-emptively position into tethers because I will likely get a bad price if futures start to tank things. However, there is still the possibility that futures will not crush the coin, and in this case prices should continuing their technical recovery and begin to rise again. So I am definitely taking a risk here...in line with my previous mantra, because honestly  I think it's the only way to get ahead...at least that's what I've been observing...the only way to buy at/near the bottom in some cases, etc. However, it should also work both ways--making me quick to not only act to buy, but also to sell if there is reason for concern. I should be able to take the "bigger risk" and NOT book profits instead of bigger risk propensity for taking losses.

However, there have also been a significant amount of "take profits" which could result in a panick up...which is what I'm betting on I guess, the way I'm positioned.

Oh well, I've set myself up for it, nothing I can do in the meantime but wait, so best to get on with my life. We'll navigate when the time comes.

So long mates!

EDIT 12-19-17: This trade actually made me nearly $5K or 25% of my account balance. Although it worked out in the end, it was still too much of a gamble, I cannot take such risk in the future. It's probably sad, but the lockup actually contributed to profitability because I may have bailed otherwise. This is testament to the ability to hold, which I need to develop as well.

A Stupid Trade

It seems that every time I go to make a trade in my personal account ONLY, a warning light should go off. Made a very stupid trade today in Nasdaq futures. I didn't look at the support-resistance of the graph, I just got in based on mean-reversion principles from the prior day's trading activity...and that's it! All I used. Didn't look at the previous 5 days. What ended up happening is I ended up buying at a (not THE) previous day's high...right when the futures turned around and stopped me out. The worst part was not buying at the high, but oh, how stupid I was. I lost 2x as much as I was willing to lose because the futures contract is so leveraged...~20 pts on the Nasdaq, $380 USD. And even so, I really wanted 70 pts of cushion. So to re-cap, I forced a trade due to FOMO and a desire to trade and increase my account size...and I lost a terrible $380 in 3 minutes...that's how bad the trade was. Now of course, had the trade been on for 1D, it would likely make money. I still believe in the target direction, but the trade itself was terrible. Unfortunately, I will be needing to paper trade futures for longer until there are consistent profits. I'm apparently only good at trading big moves currently. Anyhow, I am just so bummed.

Yep, now the futures are going above my entry.

These markets move a lot slower than crypto markets--that's for sure. They also have a lot more "false" movement...filler movement at least.

After looking at various time frames, I discovered that the hourly provided the clearest signal...I've developed a new theory: one should trade primarily based on the time-frame which provides the clearest signal. This is a bit revolutionary for me.

I'm a bit disappointed--don't think I have enough capital in my account, actually, to trade futures properly. Suggests I need a 50K account to trade 1 contract...yeah, this is about right. So I need to double my trading account. Because I'd like the ability to trade futures.

Could have made an additional 2 or 3K todaY with GBTC and BTC, super high probability

Bitcoin was up from ~8300 to ~9700 over the weekend. ~17%
GBTC was up 7% the day prior to the run, with virtually no change in bitcoin.
GBTC was up t0 1357 from 1074, another 26%...
Basically 33% compared to Bitcoin's 17%

I thought this was absurd. HOWEVER, GBTC's NAV was "only" 50% higher than its bitcoin holdings. Y charts shows the average premium, to put it in perspective, to be 45%, dropping to as low as 0%...so yes, I'm sitting on a powder keg in a way. But bear in mind that the NAV premium high was 141%, and it regularly reaches 100%...so I was like...well...it could keep going up! So I'll wait. Wasn't even attuned to the possibility of massive, irrational intra-day movement.

The following chart shows the action. It was very easy to see where the top was, and I easily called the bottom in real time (hadn't been observing the chart when it topped).

The ideal case would have been to sell my 7 GBTC near the high, (short the instrument if possible), and then buy back double at the end of the move. It was obviously short-term overbought, then obviously short term oversold, and thus would likely rise back to a fair value.

And sure enough, it's on the way back up. And let me stress, this was an easy trade.

One of the reasons I didn't trade, is I wasn't paying that much attention, I didn't think the movement could be this exaggerated, and frankly I had in my mind that this was a longer-term trade, and there's no reason--judging by the BTC price--to get out at this time. I also tried trading a little move with little fundamental support (unlike the powerful information I have here) and I failed miserably.

But of course, I'm honestly disappointed I didn't turn a ~20% gain into a 40%-60% gain by adding some trading (which was super easy in this inefficient market) and maybe even adding some more shares on margin at the lows...I'm already taking a tremendous amount of risk overall with this position, so why not take a small amount of risk, comparatively, on a super high probability short term trade? I don't know, but I've missed stuff like this over and over again. This is probably the most glaring example, esp. because the bitcoin price moved so far over 2 days where it was not possible to trade.

You know, a similar strategy works for XIV...there are those days where it totally tanks due to algos position dumping. Different market, and more difficult to trade because of the speed of the algos, but plenty of profit potential.

One last thing, is this shows the power of trading around a longer term investment position. The main thing, of course, is one is (or at least should be) attuned to the movement of their position, so then one is automatically ready to spot these short term opportunities.

But of course, at least I can be ready for next time. And now you know!

New ICOs to Invest In

 After more diligence,

Looking to invest in Gatcoin's pre-sale--ending this week.
Looking to invest in micro-money after tokens listed on major exchange (missed pre-sale and all that)
Maybe invest in Cashaa (they want to introduce banking services on a wallet-type device.) AFTER they list on an exchange.

After diligence, things I will not invest in:
-bitconnect


I also want to put funds in Dash and Monero "when the time comes", perhaps zcash as well. As to dash, any coin that can rebrand itself 3 times, survive early errors, and has low transaction costs and privacy possibilities...this kind of reliance is what's necessary. And Monero is simply the best in terms of privacy...and it is widely used for its mixing functions. Dash really is a very sleek and interesting ecosystem as well

Also interested in an offshoot of monero, AEON--it serves a different purpose catering more toward mobile users...this could be great or rural communities, also useful is the blockchain pruning AEON undergoes to keep it lite PVIX is also of interest.

In fact, AEON--with market cap of 20M, is mine-able...however, it doesn't really seem like its going anywhere currently, either. Why market cap is so low. However, anything else would not be profitable for me to mine either, so WTH!

Spent a few hours setting up the miner, on my laptop we're projection 0.01 AEON/day, and pool cash out requirement is 0.5 AEON, which would require at least 50 days...hmmm. Well, the only good news is my CPU is only running at about 50% so I could keep this on 24/7 and still use my computer for work normally. We will check back and decide from there

First Cryptocurrency Purchases

I have dabbled in Cryptocurrency previously, mining Quarkcoin on my laptop in 2013 when it first came out...which didn't go anywhere. I also loaded the program on computers at UCSD and hoped that nobody would  Somewhat of a contrarian, and unwilling to spend any real $$$ on bitcoin (not having a sizeable war chest either), I bemoaned the fact that mining was unfeasible...in fact, this was the time when the first "retail" ASIC miners started coming out. I also mined Protoshares and Litecoin, Litecoin via pool. I just tried to find my pool and, well, I don't think it exists anymore, and I don't think I ever had enough coin to withdraw either. And if I did, I lost interest far before, since my PC could hardly make a dent. I have 0.2 protoshares in my wallet, which says there is no block source...but that could just be because I never updated the software. With these going at $0.05, however, that is unlikely.

So, after taking a long "break" from crypto, after deciding it had no relevance to my real life, I am back. I purchased some ETH for $310/coin and BTC for $6K coin, much higher prices...in fact, ETH wasn't even around when I was looking at this stuff.

All in all I plan to commit X amount of capital in a partnership style arrangement, 40% my money, 60% another investor's to the crypto world, and, I guess, have fun! We'll see if we can't participate in some ICOs, do some trading, and potentially ride the crypto wave upward while trying to avoid losing coins though poor transfer practices, theft, etc. In the meantime, I will continue to trade in traditional markets as well. Perhaps I can get involved in some of the projects to increase my coding skills as well, since I am intent on entering the dev space...coding is simply an important skill at this point I think...more important than building hardware--sadly or not. Coding still allows freelancing and freestyle, whereas hardware requires complex processes--except for the simple stuff, which I can accomplish with analog components...or if things get more complicated, analog components + microprocessors...and to work with these (say Arduino) I NEED TO KNOW C+! There's just no time in the world to custom-build everything, one must make use o existing technologies.

Obviously one might guess that my eventual aim in this endeavor is 1) to build profitable trading algorithms and 2) to have a career as a base from which to launch my personal lie and business interests.

In any case, I don't believe that Crypto-currencies, at least in their current form, are going to keep risi9ng in price etc. forever, but perhaps I could be wrong. I certainly don't believe that bitcoin will remain the premier currency unless it involves. Faster transaction times, more transaction scopes, lower transaction fees...and really, who likes paying with .2 of a coin for an expensive purchase? This will probably be prohibitive. I could see a coin where $20 is 1 coin or something, maybe even $100 is 1 coin, that would be nice, but quite the reverse gets a bit problematic in my opinion. Bitcoin also only has 21M coins possible to distribute, and I would assume that at least 1M of them have been lost or forgotten, in fact, I assume the amount is probably a bit higher.

Also, the security of the crypto space depends on ridiculously large numbers, and the inability o computers to brute-force raid wallets as a result. Although hackers are constantly monitoring wallets created by common phrases and expressions, and once a payment goes into them, it gets taken out. I have seen this with the brain wallet created by "to be or not to be". You know, a brain wallet is an interesting concept though. like a humanly-memorable pass-code. I like the idea.

With all the effort I will be putting in this space, it is imperative that I learn to trade better.I am simply bad at human trading...ok, maybe not BAD, but not excellent--which is what I want to be. I am hoping of course that computers will allow for intelligently created, and very flexible trading systems. I might need to join a quant and to hone these skills. For sure, as soon as I--and even sooner than I become a developer, I will put this to work. In the meantime, manual trading it is for myself and my investors, looking forward to the future launch of my funds! Lots of work

UCO has experienced intense Contago losses

Long dated puts on UCO would have been the most profitable investment EVER! Well, you get the idea.

USO behaved far better, and it is not leveraged as one can see.

However, its performance has not mirrored the index, WTI

Although that WTI doesn't exactly mirror this WTI:

As can be seen, basic commodities such as oil, etc, are excellent things to trade given a fundamental basis in reality. I will be on the lookout for such profit scenarios in the future.

First CME Back to School Futures Trading Challenge

I traded for 4.5 hours today beginning 1 hr before market open...out of the 5 or 6 days the challenge was available. Been traveling and haven't always had internet. Also have a buddy to take care of, can't make him wait around.

But nevertheless I came in 226th place out of ~1,500...not all the people who signed up were active participants though I'm sure. however, when I was slightly negative I was in ~350th place, so I assume the majority lost money.

I can tell the top dogs used fundamentals, as well as technicals, to make their profits. Much respect to the winner, he closed out his positions half-way through today when he hit 50K. Before that he had 13 trades, suddenly 25 trades.

Looking forward to learning more about how the futures and forex markets tick and being a part of this challenge next year!

I will use CME's practice simulator for my paper trading. Like the layout, the products available...it promotes longer-term trading vs. instance action...which is what I need. It also includes slippage, 1 pt either way so is more realistic. Comissions not taken into account though. However, I have reason to believe these will be less important, than slippage certainly.

$387 in 1.25 hours on 1 /es contract. 2 b/s. PAPER profit.

Taking advantage of what appeared to be a Cat 3 "relief" day, entered a single paper trade during pre-market and closed approximately 1.25 hours later. If a true Cat 3 day then this is leaving a significant amount of profit on the table. In the future, at least 2 contracts will be purchased, doubling up on standard risk. The first will be sold when the momentum of the move appears to subside. The second will be held, with an aggressive stop, until a reversal is spotted, the trade is stopped out, or until the close of the day.

One other note: a minute chart was nearly perfect to predict a local maxima for exit on the first contract today. It would not be sufficient to spot max/min for a cat 1 day, because they would happen over a much shorter period of time. A 15 second bar or so might be needed for this. Think or Swim does not offer this, but ninja trader might in terms of tick charts, which might have a whole 'nother utility of their own in terms of displaying market action!

The 3 Trading Day Categories

In the spirit of hurricanes...

Cat 3 days: Buy the premarket, sell the close--or vis versa. During these days--after some major fundamental change--the market is adjusting to new realities and is expected to move strongly in one direction. These are the easiest and most profitable trading days. Standard position size can be increased because there is little risk of loss, although stops should still be used and moved throughout the day. They are often delineated by large pre-market futures price moves and accompanying explaining news. Positions should be entered 1-0.5hr before market open using a futures product...or whatever leveraged perennial product is available. If none, enter equities in the pre-market, or say on awesome earning the day before, after market.
Cat 2 days: There is a trend, although oftentimes there is a backlash reversal around 9:30 pacific time, 12:30 ET.
Cat 1 days: buy and sell "at value"--meaning previous support/resistance levels only, not much movement to be expected on this day, little going on, often market is in a holding pattern regarding some grand approaching event. Perfect time to sell neutral options strategies.

275 26bs

Traded 30 mins b4 open,

250 ES 16bs
260 GC 6bs
-225 ZC 4bs --one trade. Poorly controlled risk! Was breaking out went wrong way early, should have gone other way!

275 26bs

Could have been a lot better. Still need practice!!

$312, 32 b/s

Traded /ES during the latter half of what could have been (and turned out to be) a powerful day due to a hydrogen bomb test by North Korea on the weekend. Didn't really do any long term trades well and messed up a lot on the scalping and shorter-term trades. Wasn't a horrible performance though!

I'm doing everything wrong today

 ---Overall Theme: I've been trying to minimize my trading and trade medium term trends

Sometimes I get stuck in the context of my previous trades. Don't properly analyze the trend, etc.

Trend analysiss (higher/lower highs/lows) still seems to be the most powerful trading weapon in terms of positioning myself for moves. I am not using it properly.

A lot of it was market wasn't trending very aggressively in the middle of the day though.

My stops were also a little too tight. Missed 2 strong short term trends in gold as a result, was a little too greedy with order entry.

On these slower days I am definitely missing trends. It takes a bit of discipline maybe I need to move to a 3 minute chart

I b/s 10 times in Gold. 3 in oil, 2 in zc...the ones where I kept with the longer-term trend and bought/sold less were the most profitable so far, especially during this slow day

I also missed a couple of major trends in the S&P. The only good news is I've kept the risk low and haven't lost too much

One thing that would help me a lot: look at the 30 minute chart to see the context b4 trading.

I'm tired and hot btw, this isn't helping.

Despite not even looking at the trend for /ZC originally, I happened to get on the right side of it and have been sticking with it, it appears that this uptrend in the futures might bail me out of the other losses, day profit standing at 162 at time of writing

Another thing I am not doing is paying attention to the news...

Finally caught the gold trend up, erased 180 in losses and added 150, 330 in one trade. Could have been up much further on the day if I had caught the trends!

Zn: -46.88 2 b/s
Zs: -100 4 b/s
Zc: 162.5 4 b/s
Gc: 150 22 b/s
Es:  -212.50 16 b/s
Cl:    50   8 b/s
________________
Total: $3.36--56 b/s
So like ~-$200 overall because of the commissions. Of course slippage isn't a factor, nor is real market behavior, meaning actual results would be much worse!

3rd day positive, but strategies still need refinement

Based on the news and price context, I should have a daily direction in mind (or a ranging hypothesis). I should look for trades based on this fundamental information.

I notice I've been having trouble balancing taking profits with trying to catch a longer-term trend. The issue is for me the trend is an ideal, so perhaps it takes precedent over shorter-term expedients. One solution is to trade 2 contracts, take any short term gifts with the first, and attempt to hold the second for the longer term.

I also, on shorter-term counter-trend trades need to be a bit more greedy, after all there is substantial risk endured...but not overly greedy!

Eventually (80) on CL...good trades at first then kept trading against the trend and getting "killed", 22 b/s Add another $70 in commissions

Did the best with Gold, 12 b/s and 720 profit. Was playing this like a longer-term trend that I was highly confident about direction of. It is definitely not as exciting, and perhaps a bit aggravating, especially on a 1 minute chart. Maybe need a 15 minute chart to feel good about these. $40 in commissions

Constantly traded against the trend on /ES as well after determining the north Korea missile launch really wasn't a big deal...did that by looking at the trajectory over Japan, basically they were just proceeding with their plans to test a longer range missile, and of course the Western world is doing brinkmanship. But instead of going with my view that SPX would recover given its context, I was usually going short. Would have been better doing longer term trends. In the meantime I might have to do that 2 contract thing I was mentioning....trade both ways. Either that or pick an instrument to LTT and then others to short term trade. Anyway, $450 in booked profit, but at 42 b/s...wow. 130 in commissions. Quite the burn.

I also had a problem with "left over" stop orders getting filled. Better to use the OCO functionality to get everything placed and then drag by hand. Will have to start practicing with this.

So just taking $3 per b/s and not counting the price advantages of my paper trading (for that reason, not counting the $147 profit in ZN with 10 b/s...since this would probably have been a loss if real market behavior was accounted for) we have $240 in commissions, and $1090 in profit, leaving $850 in profit

Haven't done any coding reading today, anxious to get back to it, this is going to be so fun, it's an amazing challenge, pitting myself against the vast global currency market (or trying to buddy up with it haha) and working on extracting its treasures. Other market participants are not necessarily good at this! And the good thing with global currency markets is just like in futures markets they are not purely speculative. Lots of transactions have the important purpose of moving money around.

Playing with Candlestick Patterns

Think or swim has many candlestick patterns programmed into the system. I've learned by exploring them that some patterns very rarely appear...and seem to be significant when they do, such as the "stick Sandwich", "morningstar", "deliberation", "dark cloudrising", "homing Pigeon".

"williams fractal", "ZigZagStepPattern", and to a lesser degree, "harami", "engulfing," "hammer"--(lesser) are all very reliable and occur frequently...with williams fractal being uncannily accurate with regards to bottoms and tops of all magnitudes...however it is useless since it only occurs several bars after a top/bottom. It is basically confirmation that a new trend has potentially begun. Zig Zag is far more selective and much more likely to pick out major tops. Once in awhile it throws false signals, but these are usually in an area near the highs where I wouldn't be trading anyway, or during a rise...reassuring that prices won't move lower!

Others, such as "thrusting" are usually wrong and could be a worthwhile contrarian indicator haha.

"ThreeOutsideDown" and "ThreeOutsideUP" seem very useful as well, although they often lag a bit and may be more useful in terms of confirmations, perhaps it is time to add margin to the trade when these appear.

Thankfully, there is a way to put them all on the chart at once, just click patterns next to studies and drawings on the blue bar where one enters the ticker symbol...then select ones which appear relevant to a particular security. In this way one can whittle down the studies to

$300 in futures day trading paper profits, after $800

Friday about $800 in paper profits after commissions, today about $300 after commissions. Most profitable was Crude Oil, which experienced a nice trend and net 360 after 4 trades...very first trade was a loss of $70 though, so had to make that up.

Was using some tools today.

• Minute charts for entry/stop positions, 15 minute to see longer term trend (saved me on crude oil!)
• Support/resistance lines, Very useful for targets and areas of potential caution.
• on balance volume...noticed that ws and ms are useful in the analysis
• Uptrend/downtrend (higher highs, higher lows)/reverse was VERY helpful
• 9 period exponential average to help clarify the current trend
• fibonnaci analysis, both retracements and extensions.
• LOTS of stops, and moving stop up aggressively with price, also letting winners "run"
• some bollinger bands, although they weren't that helpful.
• RSI indicator, the overbought/oversold can be helpful

It was obvious that several tools worked well together to produce a good result. It was hard to come up with 3 reasons for a trade like Brian Beamish recommends, but 2 was usually possible.

On /ZN the Conigy method doesn't seem to work, instead breakout trading typically seems far more effective. A close use of stops must be utilized however!! Using protective stops aggressively is very helpful, perhaps I best use them even more often.

I did some advanced analysis on end of day behavior for the S&P. Basically for 4 days in a row the market was trading down at the end of the day. It did this for 4 days and the times were as follows: 4:45, 4:35, 4:25, 4:20...and then the current day broke this cycle by a long shot, almost as if market participants were hinting that the end of day downward behavior was over and the opposite would occur. I didn't take this seriously and missed the end of the day uptrend. Volume analysis also threw me off, should have remembered that it increases on the end of day anyhow, so not to judge a change in trend by more volume. And I also ignored a clear uptrend...plenty of time to respond. The higher high, lower low trend analysis can be very powerful. Use it frequently!

"I trade the q's, QQQ, I trade 'em tight!" --that is the result of aggressive protective stops.

Looking forward to more trading! I have been my most thoughtful and used my most advanced analysis today. Used the stuff I've learned. Very happy about this!

The things you realize programming on a Saturday Morning

Learning the MLQ4 programing language and playing around with indicators, I came to some realizations you might find valuable...programming does expand the mind!:


The 5th dimension...now I get it thanks to arrays! We "enter" the 5th dimension when we select the best set of actions from a range of possible choices using our imaginations. A dot on a straight line is 1D, Sudoku is 2D, and physical objects are in 3D. Real life happens in 4D...the critical aspect here is time. The 3D identity of space changes with time, whether that space is your closet or a hurricane. And here's where it gets tripy: In 5D there are essentially alternate realities. Think of a slider where you can choose a (4D) movie about any number of possible outcomes for an event which would happen in a given room during a certain time range. The 3D setting is in common (same atoms in the room in all cases), the 4D setting is in common (same time frame), but the goings on are different. You're thinking 5D!


Relationships:

After going a tangent reading peoples' reminiscences about breaking up with romantic partners on Quora, the idea that it takes 2 to make things work in an environment of caring and mutual respect was reinforced. I also realized that one doesn't have to be a communications pro to have a functional relationship...although it certainly helps! And along those lines I introduce the programming-inspired concept of "safe mode"...on windows machines this is a boot option where actions taken will likely not harm the software because the important bits are not so accessible. Next time you want to know what your loved one thinks on a potentially touchy subject, invoke safe mode: tell them you're experimenting and ask them to take things less seriously than normal, as in the analogy. Obviously don't say just ANYTHING--"safe mode" isn't idiot-proof!

In a similar vein, you can ask your partner if s/he would have a "deep conversation" with you. Those talks where everyone can talk freely about not-so-normal subjects and form a strong connection? It's not necessary to wait until it happens naturally, like these things thankfully do. The process can be jump-started if both people agree to overcome some temporary awkwardness!


On Cutting Corners and Cheating:

Something inside loves a challenge, maybe getting away with a small-stakes something. I recently obtained a parking ticket in a private lot. I have in my mind a convincing excuse and evidence to back it up...but on second thought, we are creatures of habit as the saying goes...and I have a bad habit of doing things sloppily then instead of accepting the consequences, trying to make it work and neutralize the impact. As a trader I can confidently affirm that this is NOT the best strategy for making money. It also doesn't work in many other areas in life whether that is working on airplanes or selling a client. In fact, it likely generally causes more harm than it saves time. So instead of spending more energy trying to get out of the ticket, I'm planning to pay the fine and move on...accept the defeat and change tactics. Take that uncomfortable blow and use it as motivation to take more care in the first place.

Now all this isn't to say that we can't fudge and "cheat"...holding something together with duct tape can be considered just that. But in my mind it is not a long-term strategy and is best used as the recourse of last resort. If you can do it right the first time, that's generally best.


I think that's all for this morning!

Joined Raul's room on TMT--had a smoker of a day.

Here is some of Raul's commentary:

Risk: /ES 6 pts
Dow: 60 pts dow
Cl:

Raul uses 30 minute bars

Looking for P and b and D shaped distributions...they don't clearly tell you where the zones are...true zones are located at single distribution zones
-Levels of support and resistance are not accurate on the overnight session...nobody is awake to buy and sell at these specific areas or manage the positions there. So they are not respected. It isn't until the US session that these levels are actively being traded.

-Raul only looks out a week or 2 for the market profiles...and if there are no levels in the market's recent memory, there's no support, hence he wouldn't be wanting to get long in these situations

Most people learn about stocks, then options, then forex or futures

Options are not a scam...but it's more difficult to trade options than stocks
Problem with stocks is even with a Margin account they're too expensive
agree

Really need 500K or greater to trade stocks according to Raul

They they start trading options...but the problem is the options are not 1:1 with the stocks...a lot of time time decay decreases the value if it doesn't move. More moving parts.

Raul didn't like Forex because the leverage is opaque


Could you even trade forex the same way you trade futures? Is the volume data not there?

14 day free trial to play with the indicator and confirm it's something you really want and can use

Cumulative tick volume is like a therapist

People get their cues from pre-market action, so one can expect the actual market to follow

Was with Raul when he had a terrible trading day losing 15K in the markets. Since I was fully long XIV I actually took a similar beating. I actually tried to get out of my position soon after the open when the market started tanking, but became resigned to it because Raul was looking to keep buying the decline...I had company I guess.

Pretty sad. As it stands, I have no wealth anymore after -2.7K in losses, am still holding of course...things could get worse before they get better. I really have to ask myself what I was thinking. This performance is Cataclysmic-ally Abysmal.

In fact, this is a 20% loss of equity from my first XIV trade a few days ago. Had I gotten out faster or even at a small loss like I originally planned, I would have been a hero! Could have gotten in at the lows of today.

Horrible Results

Traded for 5 hours...halfway through was profitable ($325), but by the end of the day had given it all back and $50, having entered and exited trades 32 times... that's 64X whatever the commission is...something isn't quite working.

If I had followed the market perfectly there would have been 6 entries and exits...12 vs 64. To give an idea.

You see

I did learn that IB has much lower commissions on the order of $0.85 per contract (plus exchange fees of $1 minimum) . Combined with their managed accounts program and wide range of instruments, this is yet another reason to choose them as my primary broker. Their poor interface and expensive options contracts are the reasons not to.

Temporal Analysis: it seems that based on the daily charts there are 3, I repeat 3 major reaction times where there are potential pivots. All except 6:30 are +/- 30 mins or so.

6:30

9:30

12:00

All Pacific Time

Abysmal Results

Trading /ES and /NKD while reading advertisements etc...and not using stops...very bad plan haha, -$325 as I realized the positions were going against me every time I'd check back

THIS IS PAPER MONEY. So I don't care AS MUCH...it's good to be able to just dick around without getting hurt. That is often what leads to new discoveries.

Made $50 on paper with /ES but could have "made a killing"

Getting in early about 30 mins prior to market open in anticipation of this jump would have resulted in very good profits.

I'm really kindof playing the small game with XIV...it would be better to trade futures during the same explosive days that XIV requires methinks.

Broke Even

Today did 14 trades on /ES (very opportune in that it moved almost 1%) and basically broke even...but then there's all those commissions! Will have to get better in order to do it for real. But will keep hitting this every day and think I'll get the hang of it.

Spent $238 trading /ES

I just spent $238 trading ES...quite a few different trades were the result.

Now I know what it is like to trade the real markets. It's better to practice on TOS for the time being! It behaves fairly similar for the longer moves. Once I can make money consistently I can go back to real.

It feels like a bummer quite frankly because the excitement just isn't there in the same way it is when one is trading small with real bucks.

I am proud of myself for stopping at loss of 1% of equity, and when it appeared the market was no longer interested in sudden moves.

I lost an additional $9 on TOS paper trading (in commissions) before it was very apparent that the market wasn't moving so much anymore.

Of course I'm not happy with the losing money thing, and I just can't let myself think of it in real-world terms, as the great traders have said.

Until next time!

Picking up the pieces

@ 10 AM I posted: Volatility Event in progress. Look out below!

XIV dropped from 87 to 83.60 in a matter of hours. I purchased on the rebound at 78. Expecting to get out in a few weeks? at 93. Should have taken the "early bird" trade.

BUT, some blame is to be put on the yahoo finance app. While the XIV quotes are accurate, VIX quotes seem to be delayed. So in the heat of the action, I was seeing VIX 13.56 when it was over 14 and climbing to 15...so I missed an ideal entry. Didn't discover the 15 factor until it was too late.

Vix seems to have led Vix futures price action today. It started dropping precipitously before the futures became to recover. This was actually the cue which caused me to trade "at all costs" and move up my original entry target from 76 to 78...only submitted one trade and it was at 78.

The other problem with my trading: I've been trying to follow that rule of 4 thirds. But these events are intra-day these days, and they are dramatic. That rule is meant to cost average over several days, so it doesn't work. The one thing I could do is the early bird trade, which I haven't done. For instance, when it was falling and falling, I could have done an early bird third at 75. Then once it had recovered, at 78 gone for the rest of cash plus margin with the confidence that it was rising, and perhaps protecting with a stop afterwards. Early bird gets the worm, and in this business, no risk = no reward. Should have totally put in all the cash at least. I put in 1/2 because thought it could get worse in the coming days and wanted to be able to capitalize on that in case.

One other interesting thing to note: not only does interactive brokers have the cheapest commissions for these types of trades (essentially $1), it also has an option for GTC types of "fill outside of regular trading hours" which can allow the trade to get the best value...and I am going to utilize this.

For this strategy, it would be worthwhile to get an interactive brokers account to manage all the other accounts. The IB account would also allow for forex trades, all sorts of complex instruments. The only thing it's not good for are options trades. eOption is by far the best for these. But then again, don't have a working and worthwhile options earnings trading system yet. eOption, however, would allow for options fills outside of extended hours, which might be the solution to the loss problems with these trades...have an automatic stop for if the stock dips below the unprotected strike to buy back at margin. IB would certainly be cheapest for testing these strategies at $1/option. And maybe it'd get better fills. So it might be worth the scaling costs

Back to work on getting truck ready for trip!

Been at San Diego Startup Week

Haven't been trading as a result. No reason to either it seems

Too Pansy-ish with XIV...New insights and Strategy

I recently made the excuse to one of my clients that the market hasn't been volatile enough to really get good returns with my strategy. I've returned 11.73% over a period during which I realistically could have returned an excess of 55% for him...55% is close to the theoretical limit but then there's margin ^^

Over a 3 month period I've returned like 2% for myself when the potential was 68.86%.

Clearly, I'm taking too little risk. One of the problems (in the current trading environment for this issue) I've been noticing, is I'm holding on to a significant amount of position during massive down days, so profits are clipped.

The other problem, is not getting in when there are opportunities. The rule of 4 thirds has been hinder some actually.

The last problem, is I will not "chase"...but chasing is a valid form of--at least--day trading. Chasing is how I planned to deploy the margin...come in completely loaded with position, then deploy the margin during the chase after XIV had risen overnight. And for the chase, it is best to get in during the pre-market.

So anyhow, annualizing these theoretical gains definitely gives returns in excess of 100%...more like 70*4 = 280%, which is certainly on par, and why this strategy has become my current go-to while I search for diversification options.

So new rule for this current market environment which is kindof choppy, picture below:

Is to, when the vix into the 9's, offload all position. All. UNLESS the price has not recovered to it's previous high, because after all, the futures move more slowly than the vix index, this is why to the far right there is a period where vix is in the 9's but even though it goes back into 10s (right after the "big" spike) XIV is still rising overall, the futures hadn't become extended. Look at the comparison!

And remember, bagging $400 (on a 10K account) on a day like today where the futures prices recover is certainly NOT BELOW ME. Especially when I have a nearly $20K account there's no reason for me NOT to bag $600 on one of these days. That's a month's living. And I'm going to need to generate more cash to survive while I'm building up my client base and perfecting my strategies.

I don't need a job, I just need to be less Pansy-ish!

(really, with XIV hitting previous highs is something that almost always causes some sort of decline.)

P.S.S. I am not above day trading. I am not above day trading. Repeat after me: I am not above day trading.
P.S.S.S. Theoretical performance of trading XIV long only is my benchmark. Capturing a high percentage of these gains, say >70% means I am doing very well. Onward!
P.S.S.S.S. Doesn't it suck to keep holding on to position anyway when coming from VIX was 9 and approaching previous highs (far more downside than upside) and then having the market collapse and losing a bunch of profit? So, take profits!

It looks like I have been AWOL--Good Quora Articles--Computerized Trading

This is not the case. There is ONE stock on my list with an earnings release this WEEK. I mean, that's hardly worth trading. And 4/5 days have no trading obviously anyway.

However, I have found that Quora is a surprisingly good investment resource. Just the fact that most of the respondents here: https://www.quora.com/Personally-how-do-you-identify-profitable-stocks?srid=u7gBP Use computer algorithms to sort and pick the stocks they want to invest in/trade is an indication of this.

As a side note, I do recall Finviz even doing technical analysis, and one can opt to trade head and shoulders patterns, what have you! Now obviously the ultimate is writing one's own computerized program (or borrowing a friend's which does what one is looking for) to actually trade these things automatically. This is what I will be working on. Using the standard rules of technical analysis one could automatically format trades on a wide variety of underlyings. Sounds excellent!

Quora is even good when it comes to seeing say if dating apps are working for men. If the paid versions are working...I came across one of these articles in my feed, and found it very interesting. The suggestion algorithms are good as well. Will be using this resource more in the future, 10 minutes online literally can be worth a month of effort.

So, what am I doing with all this time away from the trading screen? I am learning to program MLQ4, the language for the meta trader platforms. Currencies et al. I will probably need to jump ship later to another platform when I am a manager but computerized trading will always be a part of my strategy. It is very uncommon that I use such strong language but it is simply humanly impossible to be in all places at one time, and this is something computers are seemingly able to do. And they can  bring the very best opportunities to human attention and trade the rest on their own, without intense supervision. They have even have "auto desist" trailing stop style features...such as if the account they are trading has a drawdown of 30% say, they halt and notify a human. They could simply notify at 10%, say. The possibilities are nearly infinite, and the hardware is plentiful these days, infrastructures are well-developed. Count me in!

-Ian

Nada today except Comney testimony :(

Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 21 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 31 | Wins: 18 | Losers: 6 | Washes: 7 | Day: -2320 | Cumulative: (1871)

Straddle Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 20 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 4 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: (144)

DIRECTIONAL Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 20 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 10 | Wins: 3 | Losers: 5 | Washes: 2 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: 770  

Neutral Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 20 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 4  | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0 | Cumulative: (1668)
-=This Neutral Initiative has been officially discontinued due to poor performance=- Note, it did work in the past.

Account Balance: 93.7K

Results:

Bad again!

AMBA: downside was key, but I tried to trade via the charts. The weird thing is it only moved half as much during the pre market as it did during the actual market. I thought I was safe after looking at the pre-market results but boy, wrong! Really, it seems that if this strategy is ever going to fly for real, I'm going to need to get out right at open or during premarket with losers. I will research what my brokers offer. Because this just isn't working, getting out later in day. It's a raw open wound on that one side so any method to save 50% on losses or what have you is going to massively help the overall returns..

NAV: didn't do much, but did move a bit to the downside. Would have been a winner, but would haves don't cut it of course!

________________________________________________________________________________

There are no symbols to trade today :(( Want to make back the losses!!!

No, I didn't skip a day

Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 20 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 30 | Wins: 18 | Losers: 5 | Washes: 7 | Day: 2020 | Cumulative: 449

Straddle Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 19 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 4 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: (144)

DIRECTIONAL Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 19 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 10 | Wins: 3 | Losers: 5 | Washes: 2 | Day: -180  | Cumulative: 770  

Neutral Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 20 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 4  | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 0 | Day: -1000 | Cumulative: (1668)
-=This Neutral Initiative has been officially discontinued due to poor performance=-

Account Balance: 96.4K (2 trades were not represented)

Results:

Yesterday I bought puts on CSIQ...got out early this morning, hence the following tip. It went only a tad to the downside. At least I got direction right. Lost $180. From Yesterday:

CSIQ is the only play for today: -22.6, -5.8, -15.4, 11, 15, 9.7, -10, good amount of put selling some buying, 1.23 debit, almost 10% move expected. Really no credit for a lizard though. So if want to play, must play directionally, going to play to the downside

Confirmation: 

What I learned is that, YES, getting out early beats anything. Lost $180 on CSIQ but would have lost at least 270 if I waited until later in the day, well, there was also a flurry to go higher early on so IDK. Maybe it wouldn't have been quite so bed at the low afterwards...yeah, it would still have been $50 less than I got out with even at the lows, I just analyzed it. Time to wake up early often! I mean I already do that but stay awake a bit this time.

________________________________________________________________________________

AMBA -6.5, 1.55, -9.87, 8.61, -12.75, -7.2, -4.5, looks like downside is key, but after a string of losses it seems from the charts that a decline is already priced in and won't be severe if it does occur. Options statistics don't really help with this one, except there are more calls being traded, 4.85 straddle, 8% decline is priced in, nice Lizard obtained, 1:3.8 risk/reward...much better than normal

NAV -4.26, -1.62,-12, 16.5, 29, -0.89, -5.4, I say the chart indicates there's more potential for surprise to the downside than upside, market seems to be anticipating good earnings, 2.48 straddle, 8% move expected, options stats are middle market. Not enough credit. Going to stay out of this one.

'Hedge your bets again"

Listening to the indie rock song "Kissing Party" where the chorus is "hedge your bets again"

And that gave an idea. If I'm reasonably certain about a possible dip, and I don't know how far it will go, it's a good time to buy a call on VXX or UVXY to protect the portfolio...short term only, if volatility does decline, I can buy more shares and hold on to the options, or I can sell the options. If things return to normal and continue to advance, well, I lose most of the price of the options. How insurance works I guess :)

But we'd only want to be buying options when volatility is low of course, better not when a decline has already happened.

Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 18 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 30 | Wins: 18 | Losers: 5 | Washes: 7 | Day: 2020 | Cumulative: 449

Straddle Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 17 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 4 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: (144)

DIRECTIONAL Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 17 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 9 | Wins: 3 | Losers: 4 | Washes: 2 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: 950  

Neutral Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 18 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 4  | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 0 | Day: -1000 | Cumulative: (1668)

Account Balance: 96.4K (2 trades were not represented)

Results:

We're going to let VMW expire: +1020

Lulu puts: +450 if I had been on it this morning instead of 10 AM  it would have been + 1.5K apparently, :/

WDAY Puts: -450

WDAY Lizard: 1000

Account Value: $94.6K

SPX Butterfly was a complete loss: -1000,

2020 total for lizards

________________________________________________________________________________

Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 17 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 28 | Wins: 16 | Losers: 5 | Washes: 7 | Day: -3960 | Cumulative: (1571)

Straddle Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 16 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 4 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: (144)

DIRECTIONAL Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 16 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 7 | Wins: 2 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 2 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: 950  

Neutral Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 17 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 3  | Wins: 1 | Losers: 2 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0 | Cumulative: (668)

Account Balance: 98.7K

Results:

HPE Puts: $450 profit

PANW: TOTAL LOSS, 14.6% move, -4600

DG: $640 gain, did move to upside as expected

Account Value: $94.6K

________________________________________________________________________________

Goos

AVGO

LULU

RH

VMW

WDAY

Goos--not enough data

AVGO 8, 8.8, 6, 4.8, -2.3, 5.7, -1.1, since it is at all time highs I will protect downside, this is trading more off technicals and trends than past data absolute numbers. No clue from options data, Straddle $11.45, 5% expected move, not enough credit.

LULU 9.93, -19.6, -15, 9.7, 4.7, -11.8, 15.3, -30.5, options data gives no clue, Based on technicals and the number of large call options positions I am going to bet LULU moves up and buy calls accordingly, I think it is too volatile and unpredictable for a lizard

RH .3, 8.5, -4.5, -34, -26, 3, 22, 20, 5.55 debit, 9.8% expected, I don't think I can trade this one, options provide no clues

VMW 3.6, -24, -11, 12, 8.5, 3.3, 3.4, obviously more prone to downside shocks, trading at highs, protect downside. 6.90 straddle, about 7% move expected

WDAY 4, -7.5, 15.7, 2, 6.6, -15, -9.6...All time highs, I am going to protect downside, 47% of puts traded at ask, means these were bought, more puts traded as well...bought some puts therefore, straddle is 7.75%, (price is at $100), also placed a lizard

Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 16 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 26 | Wins: 15 | Losers: 4 | Washes: 7 | Day: 0 | Cumulative: 2389

Straddle Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 15 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 4 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: (144)

DIRECTIONAL Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 15 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 5 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 2 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: 500  

Neutral Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 16 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 3  | Wins: 1 | Losers: 2 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0 | Cumulative: (668)

Account Balance: 98.7K

Results:

KORS: Just got to the edge and slightly beyond the unprotected downside. Essentially a wash less commissions.

________________________________________________________________________________

HPE 3, 12, 6.4, -3.3, 3, -7.5, ...looks like buying puts, selling calls, 1.1 straddle, 5.8% expected move, will be protecting downside due to technicals and options statistics...no can do, no premium. Will buy some puts though. Wow, so many puts outstanding.

PANW 7, 6, 5, -14.1, -7.8, -15.3, -33 Downside, hello! Between markets, 10.5 straddle, 8.8% expected move...nice credit so a nice risk/reward ratio

CIEN .88, 2.18, -18.6, -22, 11, 7.44, 15.3, -9.1, 2.03 straddle, expecting 8.6 move...not enough credit for lizard

DG 2.9, -3, 4, 9.8, 4.5, -21, -5.5, -1.2, options trading within bid/ask, 3.98 straddle, 5.5 expected move, going to protect upside

Lizard Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 15 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 25 | Wins: 15 | Losers: 4 | Washes: 6 | Day: -5K (from mistake) | Cumulative: 2389

Straddle Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 14 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 4 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 0 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: (144)

DIRECTIONAL Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 14 | Missed Days: 0 | Trades: 5 | Wins: 1 | Losers: 3 | Washes: 2 | Day: 0  | Cumulative: 500  

Neutral Initiative SCOREBOARD:
Day: 15 | Missed Days: 1 | Trades: 3  | Wins: 1 | Losers: 2 | Washes: 0 | Day: -1050 | Cumulative: (668)

Account Balance: 99.25K

Results:

If you have a loser, GET OUT before options expiration. I became long DECK stock, and apparently SPLK stock as well, both of which moved against me today. Not good. Can only "let options expire" if they're obviously going to do so in your favor, not if you owe! Obviously the safest thing is to GET OUT of positions. This is another nuance which could KILL the trading! This honestly wiped out $5K in value...almost all the accumulated gains!

SPX Butterfly was a loser, market shot over it before stalling.  On these SPX, wait for the market to decline a bit in absolute terms before putting one on!

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KORS is the only issue for today: Kors: 9.8, 7.6, 19.2, 6.23, -2.9, -4.15, -12  (worse one years ago was -31% DROP!) Options data shows calls trading at ask or above, while puts trading at bit or below, people are selling puts, buying calls. Protect upside. 3.55 straddle, 9.7% expected move.