Over a 3 month period I've returned like 2% for myself when the potential was 68.86%.
Clearly, I'm taking too little risk. One of the problems (in the current trading environment for this issue) I've been noticing, is I'm holding on to a significant amount of position during massive down days, so profits are clipped.
The other problem, is not getting in when there are opportunities. The rule of 4 thirds has been hinder some actually.
The last problem, is I will not "chase"...but chasing is a valid form of--at least--day trading. Chasing is how I planned to deploy the margin...come in completely loaded with position, then deploy the margin during the chase after XIV had risen overnight. And for the chase, it is best to get in during the pre-market.
So anyhow, annualizing these theoretical gains definitely gives returns in excess of 100%...more like 70*4 = 280%, which is certainly on par, and why this strategy has become my current go-to while I search for diversification options.
So new rule for this current market environment which is kindof choppy, picture below:
Is to, when the vix into the 9's, offload all position. All. UNLESS the price has not recovered to it's previous high, because after all, the futures move more slowly than the vix index, this is why to the far right there is a period where vix is in the 9's but even though it goes back into 10s (right after the "big" spike) XIV is still rising overall, the futures hadn't become extended. Look at the comparison!
And remember, bagging $400 (on a 10K account) on a day like today where the futures prices recover is certainly NOT BELOW ME. Especially when I have a nearly $20K account there's no reason for me NOT to bag $600 on one of these days. That's a month's living. And I'm going to need to generate more cash to survive while I'm building up my client base and perfecting my strategies.
I don't need a job, I just need to be less Pansy-ish!
(really, with XIV hitting previous highs is something that almost always causes some sort of decline.)
P.S.S. I am not above day trading. I am not above day trading. Repeat after me: I am not above day trading.
P.S.S.S. Theoretical performance of trading XIV long only is my benchmark. Capturing a high percentage of these gains, say >70% means I am doing very well. Onward!
P.S.S.S.S. Doesn't it suck to keep holding on to position anyway when coming from VIX was 9 and approaching previous highs (far more downside than upside) and then having the market collapse and losing a bunch of profit? So, take profits!
P.S.S.S. Theoretical performance of trading XIV long only is my benchmark. Capturing a high percentage of these gains, say >70% means I am doing very well. Onward!
P.S.S.S.S. Doesn't it suck to keep holding on to position anyway when coming from VIX was 9 and approaching previous highs (far more downside than upside) and then having the market collapse and losing a bunch of profit? So, take profits!
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