4-23-18 real trades (3) $-60 As we can see, overall, a myriad of small issues dogging performance. This means there is hope!

2 bitcoin trades

First sucked but was $10 profit. Basically I got the break right but didn't take profits and then price reversed and I barely got out at a profit. Happens all the time. Well, actually I did try to take profit but I was a bit tired and put in the wrong order! And by time I had that straightened out the move had already occurred.

Second was a confused attempt at getting an early breakout...and then when this didn't materialize, I stayed in for a hoped-for partial rise before breakout. Delusional! Should have gotten out when it didn't work for say a $20 loss. Really, I need to be a bit better about taking losses. Need to define what I expect to happen...or what should happen, and all the possibilities when taking a trade so I can respond appropriately to price action. And then since I had my stop in the center of the range I got stopped out. Market did rebound nicely though and the long would have been profitable, but the entry was extremely poor. So I did a lot better with the entry on the next trade (gold) and market just didn't cooperate that time. Could have paid more attention to the correlation though...but at same time I did not have live Dow prices. Really need to get another futures account even though I don't feel like it!

1 gold trade (just because it had a nice consolidation period. (-$20):

Had very good entry, but only 1 contract. Originally $40 of risk. After price rebounded I moved stop to $20 risk (very good position) but then it did not follow the out of line move like I was expecting and stopped me out. I can say the entry and stop readjustment were ABSOLUTELY PERFECT for the trade and situation. However, having 2 contracts would have allowed me to immediately take profit and still hold for the long haul (and gotten stopped out) and in this particular case, order reversal with 2 contracts (always a risky business of course) would have been warranted, but it is difficult to tell for sure sometimes. Those were the only two modifications I can suggest.

It is interesting to note the Dow and Gold have been correlated recently. The Dow had been showing ample weakness, I saw this as a potential warning but was hoping gold would be able to be UN-correlated. No such luck. Instead of hope, I need to avoid these types of risk. Instead of minimize: identify and avoid. It just isn't worth the loss!

I also didn't notice the dollar rallying. Perhaps need to pay more attention to other factors, it would improve trading results substantially methinks.

Series of real XBT trades. Profit.

The question really is: why am I trading futures on a Friday? I know the market closes. Therefore I will get out of all positions. Basically I was attempting to short at the crucial trend line indicated in my analysis here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/qx4rcnSv-Bitcoin-Testing-Crucial-Trend-Line-Watch-carefully/

However, the futures will be closing in 2.5 hours, and I do not want to be locked into the position. I had a short term trade at the breakout of this formation pictured here, but I sold just as it started to roll over. I did not want to be in the position and go through the agony, plus have it potentially turn into a loser. That was $20 before commissions 490-520 (futures were priced $10 above the listed chart), but will probably not have much to show from it because etrade futures commissions are excessive! I need to find another broker.

4-19-18 Real DIA Put Trade

1st or second day gave me a gift exit at 3.50...didn't take it. Well, was going to try but when I had noticed it I was too late. Exited 1/2 position at 3.20 after an agonizing consolidation and holding over weekend. Probably hit 3.50 again though. Was able to move stop loss down. We shall see what happens to trade!
BTO 2x DIA Jun18 236 puts for $2.60 (overpaid by 0.14)

Currently have moved stop loss (triggering market sell on quote) to 247.28, which is a much better risk:reward than my previous stop loss. The trade went in my favor just an hour or so after entry, and conclusively in my favor a day after entry. Targets are in the published tradingview technical analysis linked below.

EQUITIES: predicted direction SHORT/long 

Also, equities are providing a gift to investors at the moment with an excellent potential short opportunity They are running up against stiff resistance to their upward advance. Coupled with the fact that many indicators are potentially bearish, this could be an excellent short opportunity. Conversely, breaking of the current level will indicate an excellent long opportunity. It simply does not seem like equities have the "juice", however. 

Once again I would like to do further research to see what the technical and other analysts are saying. In addition, what are the fundamentals? Tradingview.com has the technical page. There's the fear and greed index. Then there are the specific analysts I follow on tradingview. I will also spice this up with input from  

The very best way (I know of) to gain exposure to equities' projected collapse would be to purchase put options. Why? Because 1) they are leveraged but protect against gap risk 2) if a collapse intensifies, volatility will increase and the option price will increase much faster as a result. 3) Furthermore, I should be able to buy several and unload them systematically if price moves down. 4) I would be able to purchase out of the money options with several months to live, thus is price and volatility continue to move against the position, I will be able to sell at not too much of a loss. 

Basis: the Dow Jones (1!) futures, in particular, have been very reliable technically of all the major indicies. It is currently in the process of forming a large bearish wedge, which will likely break to the downside. If this occurs the formation will give a price target. The previously-formed symmetric triangle also gives a measuring target. These targets will enable me to select an out-of-the-money options strike price (targted at the bulkowski targets) and, in addition, the price action will form a major trend line allowing me to select a worst-case options time period, although I suspect the targets will be reached sooner, which will make the options all the more valuable of course. 

Chart analysis: Pattern analysis indicates at most a decently sized correction, which from the highs could put us into a bear market. The current wedge pattern's target is not even below the current low. The wedge pattern's measuring target forms a cradle with the current lows trendline, and also with the top of a major area of support. 

Technical (and further fundamental) analysis for this trade is here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/YM1!/KrGXr7Kw-US-Equities-Imminent-Minor-Decline-Before-Recovery/

Uploading images for a publication on Tradingview: Bitcoin!

The analysis is here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/qx4rcnSv-Bitcoin-Testing-Crucial-Trend-Line-Watch-carefully/

4-17-18 trade -$25 before comissions -- would have been highly profitable but stop too tight

YM:

anticipated price break below this minor line...hoped it would turn into a major move despite it being near lunch time. As price was showing weakness entered at 24798 with limit sell, then price did move down to 24788 rapidly, but then it also reversed just as rapidly stopping me out. I had moved stops from 24808 to 24803. I should have chosen 24804 based on the price action, but had done so hurriedly. I was actually in the process of moving my stop to 24796 when this occurred to guard against exactly this move, but was not fast enough. Obviously have to act more decisively than I have been. Immediately after stopped out view below:

I'll be the first to admit my stop was too tight, because after bouncing along the trend line for a bit prices dived like I was expecting. One thing I will do next time is draw the trend line denoting the current trend above the area of congestion, and be sure to place the stop above it.

Obviously this failure is unfortunate for me because this trade would have been a massive victory.

4-16-18 trade, $10 before comissions* 1 trip

I took this trade with a stop at 49.0 planning to scalp the small break to trend line support. I was filled at 48.8 unfortunately, and will probably employ a stop limit order next time. A bullish counter-impulse took price back to the previous support level after bouncing off the next support level. This is something I failed to foresee, because I failed to project the next support level when I took the trade.

*I assumed the gold futures were like bitcoin futures and that they closed at 3-3:15 PM Chicago time. This, however is not the case apparently. Therefore, as the market was oscillating in a narrow range between my entry level and the previous support level, and I did not want to be in the trade while the market was closed, I exited at a 48.7 limit. Gold futures only have the hour break at 4-5pm CT I discovered upon reading the specifications. I would still be in the trade now with a modified objective of 48.1 had I known this. However, this is an example of a trade that just didn't have any juice, I think it turned into a 50:50 probability of hitting either my stop or price target, I lost the momentum edge. So it was good to get out in any case. I originally had stop at 51.4...because I expected one or the other to get hit and get me in the trade in either direction. Price was ready to break down through the level though. Which it did and I subsequently moved stop to 49.4 then 1349.3

This is what the chart looked like just a few minutes after getting filled to close:

Price continued to oscillate for at least 25 minutes after I exited. I do not know what the eventual result was

Trading Log: 4-11-18 real trades $130 before comissions

CL: as in previous post (see previous), oil has been breaking out of a massive long-term triangle...potentially. I noticed weakness in the 3m triangle and placed an order below it. The market did break out and I moved my stop down sequentially to 66.76 where I was stopped out. I had a profit target of 66.51 at the .618 retrace and top of the triangle, but it turns out this was too ambitious. More of a long-term target and I wasn't willing to stay in this trade that long (especially because this instrument is highly leveraged). Also, CL wasn't dropping rapidly. I shouldn't have been shooting for such a target.

Another target was suggested by the .50 retrace, which was subsequently hit exactly after an exhaustion move (which was another warning of impending end in this case--due to context of previously slow decline and time of day--lunchtime on wall street) Coincidentally, this .50 retrace also made a perfect 3m bull flag. I was sortof anticipating this but got too caught up in the success of the trade! In short, I should have been aiming for a nearer target and completing the bull flag was the perfect target, plus the .50 retrace confirmed. This was a cradle. Should have recognized these factors and gotten out then, more than doubling the profits.

Potential CL breakout...not all time frames confirm, what to do!

 As can be seen, the daily chart volume does not show a convincing breakout (perhaps this is also because the day is not over). The 45M chart on the other hand, shows convincing volume on the breakout.

The 3m chart shows another picture. Notice that some of that massive volume was stopping force. This suggests to me the breakout is not yet believed by a lot of market participants. But it is a breakout nonetheless, and making an ascending triangle to boot. The breakout from this pattern is likely to be informative given its proximity to the larger pattern

News, however, casts doubt on the significance of the move, playing it up to market fear. Indeed, this may turn out to be a 1 day out of line move. So the recipe for trading now is to wait on any longer-term positions while perhaps trading the triangle


News (U.S. crude hits highest since 2014 on missile concerns):
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-near-2014-highs-011220316.html

4-12-18 edit (1 day later): Crude is flirting with top of ascending triangle. Future uncertain.

Gold, however, broke out at the same time crude did and has now failed:

Trading Log: 4-10-18 Real Trades, 6 contracts, $50 before comissions

Tradingview trial ended and to continue getting the data I desire through them would cost an extra $360 per month, so I've had to discontinue the extreme short-term tactics I was using.

Bitcoin was forming a symmetrical triangle and broke out with volume. In anticipation of breakout I placed order to buy 2 contracts at 6790 stop limit 6800. Fill at 6790. Then placed stop order at 6750 immediately. Price went up for a bit to 6850, then began to decline, so sold market sold one contract and was filled at 6830 for $40 profit. Then modified stop to sell remaining contract at 6730...where I think I'd be clearly wrong about the trade but protected from the majority of shake-out moves.

Price is currently consolidating around the 6820 level. I plan to move stop up when/if price moves upward out of consolidation area.

Profit target is just before .618 retrace, where I project price will be close to running into the edge of the 45M chart trend line (trade from 15M chart setup) at 6950.

Now moving stop loss a $5 below bottom of consolidation: 6800, as price is making slightly new highs. Must wait or a conclusive breakout of the consolidation to move stop any higher, however. Moved back stop $10 to 6790...just to give the formation room. Think there's a danger of getting stopped out at 6800...but that's as low as I'm moving it for sure.

4PM Central Time update: closed 2nd contract at, ironically, @ 6830...tried to get a higher fill but alas market just wasn't moving for last 30 minutes. Price simply remained in the consolidation pattern and wouldn't go anywhere. I didn't want exposure for the hour trading is closed on all these futures contracts.

As can be seen, trade would have met my 0.618 target but my stops would also have been violated beforehand. It's a tricky business setting stops it is.



Spotted another potential opportunity, this time in Gold. Gold was running up against a resistance line and I sold short limit at 142.3. Started to go my direction at first and moved stop from 142.8 to 142.6.

I then checked the dow jones futures...and to my horror they were failing...breaking out of a broadening type formation. Yet even though I had maybe 30 seconds when the DJ was really starting to break down before my stop was hit, I hesitated on flattening the position, hoping things would turn around. Sure enough, GC moved inversely to YM and I was stopped out at at -$30 (fill was 142.6).

Obviously the thing that gets me is I could see the failure coming and I didn't get out. In fact, I should have taken a bit of profit (which I had most of the time) and sold short YM instead!