Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Potential CL breakout...not all time frames confirm, what to do!

 As can be seen, the daily chart volume does not show a convincing breakout (perhaps this is also because the day is not over). The 45M chart on the other hand, shows convincing volume on the breakout.


The 3m chart shows another picture. Notice that some of that massive volume was stopping force. This suggests to me the breakout is not yet believed by a lot of market participants. But it is a breakout nonetheless, and making an ascending triangle to boot. The breakout from this pattern is likely to be informative given its proximity to the larger pattern


News, however, casts doubt on the significance of the move, playing it up to market fear. Indeed, this may turn out to be a 1 day out of line move. So the recipe for trading now is to wait on any longer-term positions while perhaps trading the triangle


News (U.S. crude hits highest since 2014 on missile concerns):
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-near-2014-highs-011220316.html

4-12-18 edit (1 day later): Crude is flirting with top of ascending triangle. Future uncertain.

Gold, however, broke out at the same time crude did and has now failed:




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