Bitcoin futures launch on Sunday. That was projected to take the premium (which was ~70% in one instance) out of GBTC...and it had. The fund closed Friday at 10% premium, squarely. I had gotten in at THE WRONG TIME...I bought at the fucking high just like a noob. Right before I went to take the GRE exam too. So I had all this stress at the GRE exam as a result.
Sometimes I wonder if I have a brain. I had snap-adopted the new philosophy "if unsure what to do, take more risk" because I wanted to trade, wanted to get those gains, and apparently couldn't wait.
SO the result today is GBTC DEFLATED another 10% today, wiping 5% off my accounts. Also, bitcoin is in a holding pattern. GBTC is now trading at a 10% premium to NAV, one of the lowest in history, and it is not likely to ever be high again.
I could easily have sold this morning and gotten out with only minor lumps too! But the main question is why in the world would I subject myself to so much uncertainty (except for believing in the parabolic chart-evidence) and potential damage in order to potentially make a few bucks...and alleviate my pain that "funds were not invested"...CASH IS A POSITION! A STRONG ONE, ONE FROM WHICH OTHER ACTION CAN BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF.
But apparently I wanted the pain. I wanted my clients to feel the pain. I have a fiduciary responsibility. I cannot justify stupid trades like these!!! I am definitely overtrading as well...and poorly at that.
And now, the futures will launch over the weekend, and the whole market is in a holding patter...this could potentially be the biggest crash EVER...except that the futures have limit-down halts...which I just read last 2-5 minutes.
Everyone is saying the ride will be "wild": https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/08/no-one-is-sure-whether-bitcoin-futures-will-pop-or-drop-at-the-start-but-it-should-be-wild.html
And I just put myself square in the middle of it, for no good reason. Setting all gains this year up for wipe-out, potentially.
In any case, this will definitely be a historic moment in my history of trading.
Now perhaps I'm delusionally imagining/hoping for a wildly optimistic scenario where Bitcoin rallies tremendously to heights never-before-seen...after some trading, because a syndicate of whales have decided to fuck Wall-Street, especially if futures begin to go short. But really, although this is not completely out of the question, it is not possible. Since Wall-Streeters will simply have stop orders. Yes they may lose money, but they will keep the losses reasonable. So my final hope is dashed.
More than likely, the coin will plummet. Now I must decide what I'm going to do as a result--I could hold...I was going to say this was more than likely in my personal accounts, but in truth, it is not. I will change bitcoin into something else if futures are unfavorable...and from the contract specifications, http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures/contract-specifications, this will occur at 5PM central time on Sunday under ticker XBT
Everyone will be watching their screens. If the coin plummets for more than 15 minutes, I will--what will I do? I will send half my money to litecoin...which has shown strength...and half to Tethers? What is the goal here: goal is to preserve capital, not make money--yet. We'll plan on buying near the bottom of the first move, and thus do that later. So the first goal is to preserve capital, and Tethers are the best way to do this in the crypto-world. In fact, it might be good to pre-emptively position into tethers because I will likely get a bad price if futures start to tank things. However, there is still the possibility that futures will not crush the coin, and in this case prices should continuing their technical recovery and begin to rise again. So I am definitely taking a risk here...in line with my previous mantra, because honestly I think it's the only way to get ahead...at least that's what I've been observing...the only way to buy at/near the bottom in some cases, etc. However, it should also work both ways--making me quick to not only act to buy, but also to sell if there is reason for concern. I should be able to take the "bigger risk" and NOT book profits instead of bigger risk propensity for taking losses.
However, there have also been a significant amount of "take profits" which could result in a panick up...which is what I'm betting on I guess, the way I'm positioned.
Oh well, I've set myself up for it, nothing I can do in the meantime but wait, so best to get on with my life. We'll navigate when the time comes.
So long mates!
EDIT 12-19-17: This trade actually made me nearly $5K or 25% of my account balance. Although it worked out in the end, it was still too much of a gamble, I cannot take such risk in the future. It's probably sad, but the lockup actually contributed to profitability because I may have bailed otherwise. This is testament to the ability to hold, which I need to develop as well.
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