Today I bought 2 Jan 15 SPY 202 puts because we've been going down, down, down. Options are weird. I bought at 2024 approx and at close of 2021 I'd lost $50? Must have been decrease in the VIX.
Well, I'm in this one until the market decides its time to turn around.
Once again though I was sleeping while the market was moving. Shame, shame. I am changing this I am. Must be up to check on what market does when it opens.
January 6th, 2015
EDIT: so far the trade (which should have been put on long ago) has gone in my favor. That means nothing of course...what matters is what it is when I exit it. And I could royally screw that up.
NEED TO FINISH CURRENT US MARKET ANALYSIS (and I'm not going to get to that tonight it seems)
I also placed a $450 GDX Calls trade...and I bought at a peak which was inspiration for a song I started writing today.
There was HUGE selling at end of day on this one. Is that smart money shorting? After all, the ETF is at resistance. So if it goes back down that will be a huge win for this short. If this does not break out I am out with my loss. And in with my shorts with that guy.
In the trade now. No looking back. May want to improve screening next time as this was sort of a spur-of-the-moment thing....kindof like an impulse buy. But then what isn't with me. I badly need more discipline. Working on that Sir!
I just sent out an email to some friends. Here's the text. No need to re-write:
Hello Everybody. I read an article about a certain gold miner on the market analysis tab of the Investing.com app...This one right here: http://www.investing.com/analysis/this-gold-miner-is-breaking-out-impressively-237452
First of all, I am NO gold bug. In fact, I've been bearish on gold since it started declining from its peak. I was extremely bullish at $700 an ounce. However, gold has not really responded to the market turmoil yet. This is partially due to the fact that the USD is on a tear I think. Gold is still ~1200 an ounce, right in the middle of the range it has been trading in. Holders of other currencies are likely seeing gold appreciate. However, the fact that gold hasn't started to rally in USD at least shows that, if things really start getting bad, gold has significant upside potential to me. And its still early. However, gold bulls have been burned pretty badly so it might take a few serious events to get gold to budge...like Greece leaving the Eurozone. More global slowdown.
Will this happen? I don't think gold is going to be bumping up against $2000 an ounce any time soon. However, as the article pointed out gold gold miners are beginning to rally.
As it turns out I couldn't find this article when I went to go long so I looked at a gold miner's ETF, GDX. Now there are 2x and 3X etfs to choose from but the bid/ask spreads on the Direxon 3X ETF (NUGT) options are incredible. Like $1 difference on $2 options. No thanks. But if you want to just buy an ETF as insurance against mild catastrophe (look at what gold and its miners did in 2008...no protection against severe market crashes it seems) the 3x etf might be perfect.
The good part is: GDX was/is at its lowest levels--ever. Take a look.
And the 6 month chart shows that potential breakout on the short-term scale
And of course nothing would be complete without my blunder on the daily chart. Wow. I should have been more insistent on analyzing this earlier in the day. Would have already made a bunch of money if I had. Beware all that volume on end of day. No clue what's up with that.
Anyway, just wanted to bring what looks (from the surface) like a sweet setup to your attention. Worth a gamble in my opinion. Let me know if ya'll have any info that I/we should be aware of. And don't trade purely based on what I said in this email. I am still a noob. Short term sell target would be ~$26 at the next resistance. But things are so depressed that this could move much farther than that over a few years based on the chart.
I'm out of time.
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