Friday, December 19, 2014

12-19-14 Bias: Neutral for Christmas week

I just put a $2500 max loss (well, minus the premium I received more like $1,500) iron condor spread on SPX for 2050/2055 - 2095/2100. The underlying was 2065-2068 when the trade was placed, although I legged in that was only partially successful since the aim was to place the higher spread near the close today, but the order triggered before then.

I did this because I expected the market to slowly creep up over the Christmas holiday, and I wanted to take advantage of this pause and the limited trading days. I originally wanted to buy calls but I decided this was not a good idea due to both the holiday and the size of the run the market has already had, and that an iron condor trade would be my best guess in terms of profitable strategies for this time, as it combines both a bull put spread and the additional goodness of a call spread. I was not confident enough to place a butterfly spread.

Right now I'm $1500 in the hole for the year because I bought back my losing spread for $3000 instead of taking the advice I received and sticking with it.

I had an opportunity earlier to get out of some puts I bought an an oil (UCO) ETF but erred in because of greed in assessment of my priorities and erred in executing the trade once I decided I wanted to get out. I need to remind myself that I wish to get out of these oil puts for now since oil is range-bound and time decay will eat away at my position. I will take the next available opportunity to get out profitably. I had profitable trades that I locked in profit on, and placed this trade expecting oil to go even lower, something it seems it will may not do with vigor over the near term. Once I get out of my position I will look for an opportunity to get back in on a small bounce in the oil price.

Merry Christmas!

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