I busted a risky move on Wednesday...well, wouldn't have been so risky if the big what I assume to be profit-taking move hadn't happened, but since one of my iron condor spreads, 50-55 puts, were purchased for $0.05 since the market moved so far I decided to make use of that margin and put on some more at 75-80...because that's where I could get some money. The trade was a net $435 credit after comissions. However, I really could have made 6 hundred because of the huge drop at the end of the day on Wednesday...and this drop calls things into question. So while that drop is excellent for my 95-100 calls OMG on the 80 put position!! The market could have a second down day and my position is only 1.88 points away.....
There are several possibilities:
1. Market moves up through calls
2. Market moved partway through calls
3. Market closes between calls and puts
4. Market moves partway between puts
5. Market moves down through puts.
Then there's the possibility that during the day the market will move and I'll be able to buy back both spreads at a pittance, so it doesn't matter where it closes.
The most likely scenarios are 3 or 4. Thus, for risk management, I should be looking to buy back the put side tomorrow at reduced cost unless the market seems to say otherwise. Certainly if market trades closer to 2080 throughout the day (gaps down or what have you) I MUST buy those puts back because market is tending to hammer down at the close. I don't want to lose $2500 to gain $400.
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